KUALA LUMPUR: Often regarded as a safe haven, the Malaysian real
estate investment trust (REIT) sector is unlikely to be spared from the
impact of slowing global and local economic growth this year, despite
having seen relatively good harvests last year.
As Malaysia grapples with the new reality of low oil prices — it
was trading at around US$28 (RM119.28) per barrel last Friday after
dipping to near US$26 mid-last week — REITs that will face the brunt of
the slowdown are expected to be those in the office space, which has
already been strained by a persistent supply glut in recent years.
And consumer sentiment, at risk of sounding like a broken old
record, continues to be weak. So, things are not looking that much
better for those in the retail and hospitality spaces either.
Danny Chang, Standard Chartered
Malaysia head of managed investment and product management, said the
oil and gas (O&G) and related sectors had been slashing capital
spending and headcounts significantly since the slump in oil prices.
This, in turn, will lead to lower office space requirements.
“While some spaces may be protected by medium-term rental
leases, local REITs with greater office space exposure, notably with
O&G tenancy, will eventually face greater volatilility than REITs
within the retail or hospitality sector,” Chang told The Edge Financial
Daily in an email.
Chang, however, was quick to point out that the overall yearly
dividend of local REITs will likely remain above 5.5%. That, coupled
with the consensus expectation that the central bank will hold the
overnight policy rate steady until the first quarter of 2017, may
suggest that local REITs will likely remain an attractive option, said
Chang. This will be especially true if the equities market remains
volatile and capital gains become increasingly difficult to come by.
“Nonetheless, REIT investors need to be mindful of the
underlying real estate sector exposure of the REITs, as not every REIT
generates equal returns,” he said. However, he declined to pinpoint
which REIT will likely outperform the market.
Pheim Asset Management Sdn Bhd porfolio investment director James Lau
is also of the opinion that the current economic condition is “not a
particularly bullish background for rental income when you also have
signs of overbuilding (in the retail and office spaces)”.
In an email reply to The Edge Financial Daily, Lau said
investors should also pay attention to rental income, which can be
eroded by rising operating and maintenance costs. These expenses, unlike
rental revisions, cannot be easily deferred without impairing the
quality, appeal and ultimately the capital value of assets, he added.
To Lau, Pavilion REIT ( Valuation: 0.15, Fundamental: 2.40), Atrium REIT ( Valuation: 3.00, Fundamental: 2.45), AmanahRaya REIT ( Valuation: 2.70, Fundamental: 1.30) and AmFirst REIT ( Valuation: 1.70, Fundamental: 0.60)
are likely to be the high yielders this year, as they have
well-diversified asset portfolios in hospitality, logistics, office and
retail spaces. According to Bloomberg,
AmanahRaya REIT’s 12-month yield stood at 7.32%; Pavilion REIT’s was at
5.2%; Atrium REIT’s was at 8.03%; and AmFirst REIT’s was at 6.3%.
“REITs derive the bulk of their income from rentals. So, it is
important that investors, in choosing a particular REIT to invest in, to
consider the REIT’s asset portfolio, such as their location, quality
and tenant mix,” Lau said.
When contacted, Kenanga Research’s REIT
analyst, who declined to be named, said she views local REITs as not as
attractive now for two reasons: The bond market is expected to be
volatile, and local REITs are facing a down cycle of rental reversion.
“REITs are more responsive to the bond market than [to] the
equities market, as they are [viewed as] an alternative to bonds. So, if
the bond market is very volatile, so [will] the REITs’ unit prices,”
she said over the phone.
Hence, even if REITs are generally a defensive sector, they won’t be able to really perform now, she added.
Further, she said if the ringgit falls further, bond yields will
spike, while bond prices will drop. Thus, even if local REITs have —
earnings-wise — priced in most of the weaknesses, now is still not a
good time to be exposed to the sector, she said.
Like Lau, she also thinks most local REITs are in a down-cycle
in terms of rental reversion now, in view of the current economic
situation, particularly for office and retail REITs, due to the glut in
their respective sectors. Those exposed to industrial spaces are also
unlikely to see growth as commerce slows.
“In general, REITs’ performances this year will be quite
rangebound. I don’t think there will be any exceptions,” she added.
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Monday, January 25, 2016
斤经济较:马币贬值如何影响公司的财报?- 夜月
很多人都知道,
马币贬值对出口公司有利,
而事实也确实如此,
去年很多出口公司的业绩都非凡,
但是是影响财报的哪一个部分呢?
假设夜月是出口汉堡的,
一年出口1000个汉堡去美国,
每个汉堡卖USD 1,
客户欠债(Receivables)USD 500。
2014年马币对美元 1:3
2015年马币对美元1:4
第一 营业额 (Revenue)
假设2014年和2015年夜月都是出口1000个汉堡去美国,
但是2015年的营业额却比2014年高,
2014年营业额= 1000*1*3=RM3000
2015年营业额= 1000*1*4=RM4000
所以尽管出口公司出口的产品数量一样,
卖的价格一样,
但是营业额也会因为马币贬值而增加。
只要马币可以维持在1:4,
营业额也会维持在RM4000
第二 Other Income
原本客户欠债是USD500,
算回马币就是500*3=RM1500。
所以在asset里会纪录成receivable = RM1500。
当马币忽然贬值去1:4,
那么receivable 就会增加去500*4=RM2000。
之间的差距会纪录在那一季的Other Income里。
(RM2000-RM1500=RM500)
但是要记住这个是一次性收入,
如果马币维持在1:4,
那么下一季就没有这个Other Income了。
第三 Foreign Currency Translation
你在net profit下面,
Comprehensive income上面,
会看到一个叫做Foreign Currency Translation的东西,
由于子公司记录的财报是用外币,
主公司是用马币,
所以在转换的过程中会有一些assumption的偏差,
而这个偏差就是Foreign Currency Translation,
和盈利一点关系都没有,
所以不要看到Foreign Currency Translation很高就很高兴。
半導體業多元化闢新路
電子科技業是我國製造業的重要支柱,在過去一年電子產品製造商們受惠於馬幣的急貶,成為繼手套和家具股以外,股價急升的股項。
不過從2015年11月的進出口數據來看,電子零件和電器的出口受到全球經濟放緩影響,只增加0.6%,而電子零件,尤其是半導體則下跌2.8%,這是否意味我國科技業者也將迎來逆風?
根據各大研究機構,如世界半導體貿易統計組織(WSTS)、半導體產業協會(SIA)和顧能(Gartner)等研究,都下修2016年全球的銷售前景,並認為有可能會出現負成長。
但是隨著蘋果新手機可能在今年推出以及物聯網的興起,感應晶片的需求依然走強。
美元利好是大馬半導體業者困境中的曙光,唯有不單單依賴外匯差的公司,才能走得更遠。
在本期的《一行兩股》中,將以兩家規模不同的科技公司作對照,望能知微見著,引領讀者瞭解大馬科技業的具體走勢。
綜合比較
益納利美昌(INARI,0166,主板科技組)和JCY國際(JCY,5161,主板科技組)皆是生產半導體的科技公司。但兩者所生產的產品類型有所不同。
益納利美昌生產用於智能手機無線射頻率(Radio Frequency)和用於汽車的光電領域(Opto Electronic)。在智能手機和平板電腦的需求強勁帶動下,公司的業績蒸蒸日上。
反觀JCY主要是生產個人電腦的硬碟驅動器(HDD),隨著個人電腦的需求降低,人們紛紛轉為平板電腦和手機,該公司一度陷入虧損。但在今年調整策略,加強機械化,減低人力成本以及美元走強等利好幫助下,終於逆轉頹勢,盈利前景也相當樂觀。
這兩家公司同為半導體晶片製造商,但產品種類不同。一開始將重心放在智能手機和平板的益納利美昌,自上市以來業績幾乎不曾下跌,後來從創業板轉至主板,股價在今年更飆上歷史新高。
JCY則一路走來坎坷,上市初期備受矚目,一度傳出大馬交易所有意將之納入綜指成份股。但後來個人電腦需求一路下跌,該公司獲利前景不佳,股價一度更跌破發售價的一半。該公司痛定思痛,大手筆改善生產效率,業務逐漸穩定。
兩者的共同點是以出口為主,主要客戶都是美國大科技產品生產商。益納利美昌的最主要客戶是全球十大半導體生產商Avago,JCY的主要客戶是世界硬碟大廠威騰(Western Digital),因此兩者都享受到美元利好。
益納利美昌
益納利美昌2011年在創業板上市時名為益納利,發行股價每股38仙,獲得10.42倍的超額認購,當時的主要業務仍只是手機領域的晶片。
2012年,該公司以1億零180萬令吉收購菲律賓美昌全球,並更名為益納利美昌,進軍光電半導體領域。
後來公司生產的晶片除了應用在平板電腦和手機以外,更可廣泛運用在汽車領域上,公司業務更為多元。
根據資料,汽車的LED燈光使用率目前只有5%,預計2020年汽車LED全球市場規模將高達400億美元。
在2014年7月該公司發行附加股籌資1億3千324萬令吉建設新廠。該公司在中國和菲律賓也設有晶片廠,預計今年所有的海外廠房皆可以投入運作。
2014年5月從創業板轉戰主板,盈利不斷創造新高,股價更一度漲至4令吉58仙,派發紅股除權後,股價仍維持在3令吉60仙以上水平。
財務
營收料達12億
股息優
營收料達12億
股息優
益納利美昌自上市以來業績不斷創新高,2012年的營收為1億8千零80令吉、2013年為2億4千110萬令吉、2014年為7億9千300萬令吉、最新2015財政年為9億3千310萬令吉。
根據分析員預測,2016年的營收會達到12億令吉。
每股淨利也十分可觀,2014年為4.2仙,2015財政年淨利達1億2千523萬令吉時,每股淨利為19仙。最新截至2016年9月30日止的第一季淨利為4千550萬令吉,每股盈利為6.24仙。
益納利美昌目前手上握有2億8千226萬令吉現金,長期和短期債務一共為7千670萬令吉,債務比為0.08倍,處於舒適水平。
該公司派息記錄良好,去年共派發4次股息,總共8.9仙。去年年杪,公司更決定以4配1的比例派發紅股。
展望
成長潛力強
成長潛力強
安聯星展研究指出,無線電波零件(RF)隨著4G長期演進技術(LTE)和穿戴智能配件的推出,新一代智能手機需求將會走高。益納利美昌的主要大客戶
AVAGO,預計在未來2至3年內預測將會有15至20%成長。分析員看好未來2至3年內該公司的複合年均增長率將會有18%之多。
根據《彭博社》資料,目前共有9家證券行給予該公司“買進”的評級,1家建議“持有”。
JCY國際
JCY初上市時,市場十分看好,每股發行價為1令吉60仙,惟出師不利,上市第一天就折價12仙至1令吉48仙,似乎暗示該公司未來上市之路的暗淡前景。
JCY為當時全馬最大硬碟製造商,全球最大的儲存硬碟製造公司威騰(Western Digital)是其最大的客戶,前景可說是一片光明。但好景不長,隨著個人電腦需求下跌,硬碟的銷售需求也跟著走疲。
屋漏偏逢連夜雨,公司位於柔佛的工廠更發生外勞糾紛重新市場衝擊市場信心,股價更是一路下挫。後來弱勢美元以及最低薪金制的落實,更使公司的業績一路下挫。
2011年泰國水災,硬碟訂單大增,公司一度有好轉跡象。但好景不常,2013年美國經濟放緩,衝擊公司獲利。
儘管JCY的業績時好時壞,但今年馬幣急速貶值,以出口為主的JCY大發利市。
2015年末季的獲利大增356%至7千560萬令吉,除了美元利好外,公司改善生產效率也是其中一個因素。
該公司負責人表示,未來2至3年將減少約5千名員工,預計每年將省下1億令吉。
JCY營運體質的改善也具體反映在股價上,公司股價自2015年1月的50.7仙漲至上週五的72.5仙,一共上漲49.22%或21.8仙。
財務
盈利回升
負債良好
盈利回升
負債良好
今年可以說是該公司業績相對來的好的一年,JCY截至2015年9月30日的營業額雖然只和去年持平為19億令吉,但其全年淨利卻上漲90.65%至2億零950萬令吉,每股獲利為10.3仙。
雖然今年的獲利情況獲得大幅度改善,但若比較2012年每股獲利的21.6仙水平,仍有一段差距。
市場預期該公司2016和2017年營業額能達到22億令吉,每股淨利預期則為9仙。
公司目前握有的淨現金為3億8千483萬,淨債務比為0.076倍,處於良好水平。
股息方面,該公司過往的週息率為8.13%,可說是相當高。單單在2015財政年,公司就派發了6.75仙股息。
展望
大筆現金
可供收購
大筆現金
可供收購
多家半導體銷量統計機構認為,個人電腦的需求將會繼續走跌,這影響了硬碟驅動器的發展。但是該公司未來將在中國設立新的數據儲存中心,為硬碟資料儲存開拓新的方向。
同時,公司也自動化其設備,減低勞動力上的需求,公司對於獲利前景依然樂觀。
該公司手上也握有大量的現金,並不排除收購國內外的公司,以擴大其市佔率和客戶群。
目前只有兩家證券行追蹤該公司表現,評級皆是“買進”。(星洲日報/投資致富‧一行兩股‧文:傅文耀)
Friday, January 22, 2016
收購策略利好‧AXIS產託展望分歧
(吉隆坡22日訊)AXIS產業信托(AXREIT,5106,主板產托組)將積極收購產業以推動成長,分析員雖看好其收購策略,但對前景的看法並不一致。
豐隆研究出席該公司匯報會後表示,該公司巴生物流分銷中心(PDI)的租客已經遷出,2016年料將減少900萬令吉的營業額,因此計劃將PDI打造成120萬方呎的巨型分銷中心,預期在2017年下半年帶來顯著貢獻。
豐隆說,過於依賴工業資產、倉庫及製造業租戶是該公司面對的風險,且每年的調漲租金的幅度僅在2%至3%,因此下砍2016及2017財政年的淨利預測,幅度介於2%至3%。
肯納格研究表示,該公司2015年淨收入(RNI)低於預期,主要是PDI租客遷出之故。此外,該公司第四季面對160萬令吉的金融債務,以致息稅前利潤(EBIT)從74.8%被壓縮至70.8%,因此調低2016財政年的整體費率(GRI)5.1%。
馬銀行研究表示,AXIS大廈近期完成了翻新工程,且出租率從78.8%提高至93.7%,部份抵銷PDI收入縮減的影響。
聯昌研究認為,該公司未來成長主要來自新收購的產業,管理層認為今年將會是“收購年”,目前正在物色5項資產,2項來自雪州、2項來自森美蘭、1項來自檳城,上述產業總值約3億6千900萬令吉。(星洲日報/財經‧報道:謝汪潮)
3利好支撐‧怡保花園前景可期
(吉隆坡22日訊)儘管怡保花園(IGB,1597,主板產業組)受到大環境影響,近期股價表現不理想。不過,該公司現金流強勁,尚有多項未釋放價值的資產,且還有多項海內外工程進行當中,分析員仍看好公司未來3至5年的表現。
現金流強勁多項工程進行中
大眾研究表示,怡保花園股價已比其大股東之前作出的全面獻購價2令吉88仙低20%(全購計劃後來告吹),其目前市值約30億令吉,持有的怡保花園產托
(IGBREIT,5227,主板產業投資信托組)股權價值23億7千萬令吉,加上目前手上握有的5億令吉現金以及旗下資產如2萬2千平方呎的辦公大樓、
16間酒店以及其他正在進行中的計劃,這些資產都足以單獨成立一個辦公樓或酒店產業信託。
該行同意控股公司會有折價,但怡保花園股價比重估淨資產值折價約67%是不合理的,而這些是可創造現金的資產。
該行補充,以怡保花園目前的股價看來,這是一個入場的好時機。該公司今年的派息可能達到每股10仙,高於預期的7.5仙。若按照目前的股價計算,其週息率高於4%。
未來兩或三年,公司目前進行中的工程也將陸陸續續完成,這相信會再次激勵該公司的業績。此外,公司脫售其非核心資產以及倫敦工程的推出,也會帶動公司的股價表現。
同時,該公司的谷中城和園中城廣場未來3年的租金也將調漲15%。
整體來說,分析員仍看好公司的投資資產,其未來3至5年表現仍會十分強勁,給予”超越大市“的評級,目標價為4令吉80仙。(星洲日報/財經)
斤经济较:熊市买股和牛市买股技巧的差别 - 夜月
昨天股市经历了一段血洗,
散户要钱不要货,
很多好股无缘无故跌超过5%以上,
很多人或许觉得完了,
熊市要来了,
每个国家的股市都在跌,
然而今天却来一个大反弹,
使到昨天卖掉股票的人大骂。
到底股市可以被预测吗?
你打开新闻,
会看到一堆所谓的预言家在预测,
当然负面的预测比较多,
让你陷入恐慌之中,
因为他们分析的好像头头是道。
但是你要记住,
越恐慌的时候,
给于负评的人越多,
这个是一种心理游戏,
我写部落格多年我知道,
在这种时候,
你如果写未来股市一片光明,
你一定被骂得很惨,
就算之后股市真的反弹,
也没有人会觉得你厉害,
所以看评论要考虑偏见的因素在里面。
你或许会听到资深的投资者说,
长期投资者是不去预测股市的,
只要价格比价值低,
我们就买进,
然后收到价格上升到价值之上,
才考虑卖掉。
这样你就不需要烦到底明天股市会起还是跌。
我非常赞同这个理念,
但是我想分享一些经验,
让你可以在这个反复无常的股市,
可以赚更多钱。
第一 资金分配
首先我们要懂得在稳定的牛市买股,
和在一个纷乱的市场买股是不同的。
当股市非常稳定的时候,
你是很难遇到股价大跌的,
相反的你会看到股价缓缓上升,
所以在稳定的市场,
持有股票的比例可以很高,
因为你很难找到大跌的机会买进。
然而在一个纷乱的市场,
股市不久就会遇到一次震荡,
国际发生什么负面消息,
全世界的股市都会大跌。
所以建议你持有较多比例的现金,
以便让你可以在股市大跌时,
有资金买进心目中的好股。
第二 议价能力
在稳定的市场,
你要买一只股,
很多时候其他投资者不要便宜卖给你,
因为大家看到股市前景非常稳定,
所以这个时候,
你就要折服于用较贵的价格买进,
设下的安全边际可以低一点,
要不然你买不到股票。
但是在纷乱的市场中,
人心惶惶,
动不动就大跌,
所以你设的安全边际要高一点,
如果你想买一只股,
但是股价已经起很高了,
那么就不要去追高了,
因为你等一等,
可能又会遇到股市大跌,
这时你就可以捡到便宜货。
第三 股票价值
很多人以为,
股票的价值在任何时候都是一样的,
其实不然,
在稳定的牛市,
投资者会变得比较乐观,
定的价值会比较高,
在纷乱的市场,
投资者比较悲观,
定的价值会比较低。
如果你觉得一支股票在牛市的PE应该是12,
不要傻傻的觉得熊市是股票也值得PE12,
可能才值PE8,
所以看到股票PE10时,
不要傻傻买进。
希望我的小小经验,
可以帮助到大家,
在这个纷乱的股市赚到钱。
你或许有兴趣:
Sunway REIT - Unwarranted Sell-downs
Recently, we observed its share price has declined
more aggressively than its peers over past one month with -5.3% returns
on the period vs. peers’ average returns of -0.5%. As a result, SUNREIT
is trading at 7.1% gross dividend yield vs other MREITs at 5.3%-6.1% at
current levels. While the volatile bond market has caused MREITs’ unit
prices under our coverage to ease, SUNREIT experienced worse performance
due to concerns on its office and hospitality segments. In our
potential worst-case scenario analysis, we trimmed FY16E numbers for
both the office and hospitality segment, as shown in Table 1 (refer overleaf).
For the office segment, we assumed no new tenants will be secured in
FY16 and tweaked our occupancy assumptions lower, based on historical
low levels for: (i) Sunway Tower, to 20.0% (from 39.0%), after the
anchor tenant, Ranhill Worley Parsons (Ranhill) vacated the premise and
(ii) Menara Putra Tower, to 26.0% (from 55.0%). In the hospitality
segment, we lowered occupancy rates closer to 1Q16 occupancy rates for:
(i) Sunway Hotel Seberang Jaya to 60.0% (from 75.8%), assuming
competition in Penang Mainland persists, and Sunway Putra Hotel to 40.0%
(from 51.5%), assuming no growth in occupancy rates. We maintained our
retail assumption as we have already imputed conservative assumptions
previously. To recap, we have imputed lower FY16E occupancy rates for
Sunway Putra Mall in 4Q15 results review and also forecasted low single
digit step up rates in FY16E for other retail assets.
Impact of worst-case scenario is not so alarming after all. Based on our worst-case scenario analysis, we expect FY16E RNI to reduce by 7.0% after adjusting for higher direct property expenses (+3.3%), as we expect higher up-keeping cost. All in, GDPU will be lowered to 9.6 sen (from 10.2 sen), implying gross yields of 6.6% (net yield: 6.0%), which is still higher than our MREIT universe average of 6.0% (range: 5.3%-6.6%).
We still like SUNREIT for its new asset contribution and visible acquisition pipeline. Despite the potential weaknesses highlighted above, we expect FY16E to be better than FY15 as contributions from Sunway Putra Place (SPP) will be mostly accretive in FY16E. Additionally, SUNREIT has a strong visible pipeline of asset acquisitions in place (i.e. The Pinnacle Sunway, Sunway University, and Sunway Pyramid 3). Assuming that SUNREIT fully funds the acquisitions via debt, we believe the group can gear up to 0.40x from current levels of 0.33x, which is still within the group’s comfortable gearing level. This translates to additional RM460m borrowing capacity.
Valuation is still justifiable and warrants an OUTPERFORM. We opine that our applied gross yield spread of +1.9ppt to the 10-year MGS target of 4.0% is justifiable, i.e. target gross yield of 5.9% (net: 5.3%), given that it is higher than our MREIT universe’s average gross yield spreads of +1.8ppt (range: 1.0ppt-2.5ppt). The higher yield spreads take into account the potential weaknesses in the hospitality and office segments as well as it being a mixed segment MREIT. In our worst-case scenario analysis, assuming we lower GDPU to 9.6 sen (from 10.2 sen) whilst maintaining our target gross yield spread, this would only lower our TP to RM1.62 from RM1.73; this would imply a yield of 6.6% vs. the peers’ average of 6.0%. At this juncture, we opt to leave our earnings and TP unchanged, pending clarity from upcoming 2Q16 results on 27-Jan-16.
We maintain OUTPERFORM call with TP of RM1.73, based on a target gross yield of 5.9% (net yield of 5.3%). Risks that will alter our call are weaker-than-expected occupancy rates from office and hospitality segments, higher-than-expected direct property expenses, and lower-than-expected contribution from SPP.
Source: Kenanga Research - 22 Jan 2016
Impact of worst-case scenario is not so alarming after all. Based on our worst-case scenario analysis, we expect FY16E RNI to reduce by 7.0% after adjusting for higher direct property expenses (+3.3%), as we expect higher up-keeping cost. All in, GDPU will be lowered to 9.6 sen (from 10.2 sen), implying gross yields of 6.6% (net yield: 6.0%), which is still higher than our MREIT universe average of 6.0% (range: 5.3%-6.6%).
We still like SUNREIT for its new asset contribution and visible acquisition pipeline. Despite the potential weaknesses highlighted above, we expect FY16E to be better than FY15 as contributions from Sunway Putra Place (SPP) will be mostly accretive in FY16E. Additionally, SUNREIT has a strong visible pipeline of asset acquisitions in place (i.e. The Pinnacle Sunway, Sunway University, and Sunway Pyramid 3). Assuming that SUNREIT fully funds the acquisitions via debt, we believe the group can gear up to 0.40x from current levels of 0.33x, which is still within the group’s comfortable gearing level. This translates to additional RM460m borrowing capacity.
Valuation is still justifiable and warrants an OUTPERFORM. We opine that our applied gross yield spread of +1.9ppt to the 10-year MGS target of 4.0% is justifiable, i.e. target gross yield of 5.9% (net: 5.3%), given that it is higher than our MREIT universe’s average gross yield spreads of +1.8ppt (range: 1.0ppt-2.5ppt). The higher yield spreads take into account the potential weaknesses in the hospitality and office segments as well as it being a mixed segment MREIT. In our worst-case scenario analysis, assuming we lower GDPU to 9.6 sen (from 10.2 sen) whilst maintaining our target gross yield spread, this would only lower our TP to RM1.62 from RM1.73; this would imply a yield of 6.6% vs. the peers’ average of 6.0%. At this juncture, we opt to leave our earnings and TP unchanged, pending clarity from upcoming 2Q16 results on 27-Jan-16.
We maintain OUTPERFORM call with TP of RM1.73, based on a target gross yield of 5.9% (net yield of 5.3%). Risks that will alter our call are weaker-than-expected occupancy rates from office and hospitality segments, higher-than-expected direct property expenses, and lower-than-expected contribution from SPP.
Source: Kenanga Research - 22 Jan 2016
Thursday, January 21, 2016
斤经济较:通货膨胀是好事?
通货膨胀(INFLATION)可以被解释为物价上涨、或是钞票的价值下跌。比方说:十年前,一个面包要RM0.50,现在一个面包要RM1,你可以说面包涨价了,也可以说钞票的价值跌了,因为货物和钱的价值是相对的。
轻微的通货膨胀是好的,因为你知道明天物品的价格会比今天高,这样你今天才会去消费,有消费生产商才会继续生产,那么工人才有工作。但是前提是经济(GDP)成长要比通货膨胀高。我们将经济比喻成一个人的薪水,通货膨胀比喻成他的花费。花费每年提高是不要紧的,重要是每年的薪水增加。所以如果一个国家的GDP增长率是6%,那么通货膨胀在3%以下是良性的。
所以问题不出在通货膨胀,而是出在贫富悬殊。GDP增长率6%并不代表每个人的薪水都增长6%,通常是代表一小部分人的薪水增涨很多,而大部分人的薪水维持不变。薪水不变,但是花费增加了,当然是有问题啦。
通货膨胀的相反情况是通货紧缩(DEFLATION)。
通货紧缩是一个恐怖的恶性循环。试想想,如果明天的物价比今天便宜,你会选择现在消费吗?现在不消费,就会导致生产过剩,间接导致工厂倒闭,很多人失业,
最终导致更多人没有能力消费,然后不断循环下去。所以政府为了对抗通货膨胀,就会采取控制利率的方法。当通货紧缩时,政府就会调低利率,鼓励花费和减少储
蓄,或是就像日本和美国一样,派钱让在外流动的钱增加,达到通货膨胀。
然而,还有一个极端就是无法控制的通货膨胀(HYPERINFLATION),这个通常发生在一些面临危机的国家。大家不再信任该国家的货币而大量抛售,导致货币在短期之内大量贬值。
总结:货币政策、利率、经济政策种种都是息息相关,当中一个齿轮发生问题就会影响到整个系统。
Good Buying Opportunity - Koon Yew Yin
If you watch CNBC you will see Cramer shouting the market down. He is
like a preacher telling you that it is a sin to hold shares.
Cramer: Charts show huge sell-off could be coming
Since investors always follow the US Market, all the major stock markets in the world are falling. Most investors and fund managers are rushing to sell all their holdings as if tomorrow is too late to sell. All Fund managers will follow one another like in a herd of sheep. No one dares to take a contrarian view as there is safety in numbers.
If all investors can control their emotion of fear and think logically, all the shares will be fully valued and then there will not be any undervalue shares for you to buy. Now you can buy many good stocks at a discount. I think the following shares are good stocks to buy.
If you want to be a super investor, you must take advantage of this buying opportunity.
FAVCO
This company has strong capabilities of producing cranes that served 11 of the world 13 tallest buildings including Burj Dubai, Taipei 101 and Petronas Twin Towers. Their specialty is construction of “high speed high lift” tower cranes that move heavy things up and down fast. It also has strong branding and collaboration with partner like Caterpillar (the world’s biggest construction machine manufacturer) for its crawler crane. Last but not least, it is a cash rich company with a net cash position of RM1.15 per share. Some might argue that they involve in oil and gas sector which is very much depressed now. One who invests in this company is for its capabilities, know-how and strong balance sheet. It is a wiser bet to invest in Favco compared to other oil and gas companies as they will be in huge trouble if low oil price prolonged due to huge debt.
CANONE
Canone involves in cans manufacturing business and production of sweetened condensed milk and evaporated milk. Commodity price like milk has come down substantially which benefiting F&B players like Canone. This is evidenced from Nestle, F&N, Dutch Lady and Canone’s latest quarter result showing reduced cost in and hence higher profit. As at today, milk price is still very much depressed. Canone also owns 32.9% of Kian Joo Can Factory Berhad. At its market price today, the stake is worth RM463mil which is half of Canone’s market cap.
CHIN WELL
This company manufactures and trades fastening and wire products. Together with the sister companies Gem Year Industry Co. Ltd in China and Jinn Her Enterprise in Taiwan (each managing by a brother), they are one of the biggest group of fastener manufacturers in the world, if not the biggest.
Chin Well is the beneficiary of implementation of GST as GST charging 6% while previously sales tax charging 10%. There were a lot cheap products from China selling without invoice to avoid sales tax. With the implementation of GST, they need to issue invoice which will push the prices up by 6%. European Union imposed anti-dumping duty as high as 74% tariff on imports of certain steel fastener from China and Malaysia. There are 9 companies being exempted from this rule and Chin Well is one of them. This anti-dumping duty has been extended for a further 5 years from 2015.
In February 2015, Chin Well acquired the remaining 40% shares in its Vietnam subsidiary and now they are able to fully consolidate the contribution from Vietnam. Vietnam has slowly becoming the preferred manufacturing hub due to its lower labour cost compared to China. Chin Well’s Vietnam operation is focusing on European’s DIY market which command higher margin. Chin Well exports 67% of its product hence they benefit from weak ringgit.
FOCUS LUMBER
Focus Lumber manufactures plywood and veneers. It exports 97% of its products and mainly to USA. It is a zero debt company with huge cash pile of 83 cents per share. Its profitability has improved for the past few quarters due to the fact that Ringgit has weakened significantly over the past few quarters. As low crude oil price leads to low gas price in US, people in US has more disposable income which leads to higher spending. Furniture players will benefit from this.
V.S INDUSTRIES
VS ranked 25 of the world top 50 electronic manufacturing companies in 2014. It is contract manufacturer of Keurig Green Mountain for its Keurig coffee machine, Dyson, sole OEM for Zodiac Pool Cleaners and etc. VS has operation in Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Vietnam and etc. 90% of the sales are transacted in USD and this accelerated earnings growth for the past few quarters.
The company was in talks with new clients in US and Europe and expect increasing export orders in 2016.
THONG GUAN
Thong Guan manufactures plastic and paper products like stretch films, garbage bags, flexible packaging and etc. It is one of the biggest players in Japan’s garbage bag market by having 15% market share. Thong Guan has been expanding all its production lines for the past 1 year and new capacity has brought in higher revenue and profit which evidenced in the past few quarters. There will be further new capacity coming in 2016 hence we can expect better performance for 2016.
Cramer: Charts show huge sell-off could be coming
Since investors always follow the US Market, all the major stock markets in the world are falling. Most investors and fund managers are rushing to sell all their holdings as if tomorrow is too late to sell. All Fund managers will follow one another like in a herd of sheep. No one dares to take a contrarian view as there is safety in numbers.
If all investors can control their emotion of fear and think logically, all the shares will be fully valued and then there will not be any undervalue shares for you to buy. Now you can buy many good stocks at a discount. I think the following shares are good stocks to buy.
If you want to be a super investor, you must take advantage of this buying opportunity.
|
Favco |
Canone |
Chinwell |
Focus Lumber |
VS |
Thong Guan |
3rd last Q |
10.34c |
9.88c |
3.94c |
3.22c |
2.58c |
4.4c |
2nd last Q |
7.61c |
14.77c |
4.41c |
7.80c |
4.79c |
6.75c |
Last Quarter |
14.27c |
14.28c |
6.07c |
9.35c |
5.22c |
10.7c |
Next Q |
?? |
?? |
?? |
?? |
?? |
?? |
Current Price |
2.75 |
4.06 |
1.82 |
2.40 |
1.31 |
2.90 |
FAVCO
This company has strong capabilities of producing cranes that served 11 of the world 13 tallest buildings including Burj Dubai, Taipei 101 and Petronas Twin Towers. Their specialty is construction of “high speed high lift” tower cranes that move heavy things up and down fast. It also has strong branding and collaboration with partner like Caterpillar (the world’s biggest construction machine manufacturer) for its crawler crane. Last but not least, it is a cash rich company with a net cash position of RM1.15 per share. Some might argue that they involve in oil and gas sector which is very much depressed now. One who invests in this company is for its capabilities, know-how and strong balance sheet. It is a wiser bet to invest in Favco compared to other oil and gas companies as they will be in huge trouble if low oil price prolonged due to huge debt.
CANONE
Canone involves in cans manufacturing business and production of sweetened condensed milk and evaporated milk. Commodity price like milk has come down substantially which benefiting F&B players like Canone. This is evidenced from Nestle, F&N, Dutch Lady and Canone’s latest quarter result showing reduced cost in and hence higher profit. As at today, milk price is still very much depressed. Canone also owns 32.9% of Kian Joo Can Factory Berhad. At its market price today, the stake is worth RM463mil which is half of Canone’s market cap.
CHIN WELL
This company manufactures and trades fastening and wire products. Together with the sister companies Gem Year Industry Co. Ltd in China and Jinn Her Enterprise in Taiwan (each managing by a brother), they are one of the biggest group of fastener manufacturers in the world, if not the biggest.
Chin Well is the beneficiary of implementation of GST as GST charging 6% while previously sales tax charging 10%. There were a lot cheap products from China selling without invoice to avoid sales tax. With the implementation of GST, they need to issue invoice which will push the prices up by 6%. European Union imposed anti-dumping duty as high as 74% tariff on imports of certain steel fastener from China and Malaysia. There are 9 companies being exempted from this rule and Chin Well is one of them. This anti-dumping duty has been extended for a further 5 years from 2015.
In February 2015, Chin Well acquired the remaining 40% shares in its Vietnam subsidiary and now they are able to fully consolidate the contribution from Vietnam. Vietnam has slowly becoming the preferred manufacturing hub due to its lower labour cost compared to China. Chin Well’s Vietnam operation is focusing on European’s DIY market which command higher margin. Chin Well exports 67% of its product hence they benefit from weak ringgit.
FOCUS LUMBER
Focus Lumber manufactures plywood and veneers. It exports 97% of its products and mainly to USA. It is a zero debt company with huge cash pile of 83 cents per share. Its profitability has improved for the past few quarters due to the fact that Ringgit has weakened significantly over the past few quarters. As low crude oil price leads to low gas price in US, people in US has more disposable income which leads to higher spending. Furniture players will benefit from this.
V.S INDUSTRIES
VS ranked 25 of the world top 50 electronic manufacturing companies in 2014. It is contract manufacturer of Keurig Green Mountain for its Keurig coffee machine, Dyson, sole OEM for Zodiac Pool Cleaners and etc. VS has operation in Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Vietnam and etc. 90% of the sales are transacted in USD and this accelerated earnings growth for the past few quarters.
The company was in talks with new clients in US and Europe and expect increasing export orders in 2016.
THONG GUAN
Thong Guan manufactures plastic and paper products like stretch films, garbage bags, flexible packaging and etc. It is one of the biggest players in Japan’s garbage bag market by having 15% market share. Thong Guan has been expanding all its production lines for the past 1 year and new capacity has brought in higher revenue and profit which evidenced in the past few quarters. There will be further new capacity coming in 2016 hence we can expect better performance for 2016.
租約調幅低及競爭加劇‧凱德商託缺催化動力
(吉隆坡21日訊)凱德商托(CMMT,5180,主板產業投資信托組)第四季業績符合預期,不過短期內料受租約缺乏彈性及競爭加劇影響,分析員下調財測。
馬銀行研究認為,該產托核心盈利符合預期,盈利成長主要是新收購資產Tropicana商場及辦公樓額外貢獻。
該資產貢獻第四季營業額14%。
該行預測,受捷運工程、BB廣場關閉及競爭嚴峻影響,金河廣場料持續拖累資產組合,因該資產2015財政年租約更新率已下滑31.5%,出租率則從2014財政年跌至90.4%。
“短期盈利成長料受金河廣場限制,同時位於非精華地段商場租金調漲率料面臨挑戰。”
納入2015財政年業績及調整租金收入預測後,該行下調2016、2017財政年盈利6.1%至6.9%。
2016財政年該產托撥出6千萬令吉預算翻新Gurney廣場及Tropicana商場,同時有33.9%的可出租組合到期,當中Gurney廣場佔14.4%。
肯納格研究認為,在2017年下半年完成捷運建築工程之前,金河廣場料只微幅調漲租金。
考量第四季表現,達證券下調金河廣場平均租金8%至9%,出租率從95%降至90%,導致2016至2017財政年盈利下跌6%至7%。
該產托預計,零售領域前景挑戰,儘管Tropicana商場及辦公樓將作出全年貢獻,2016年每股盈利料持平,主要是受租約更新前景低迷、高融資成本及股本擴大影響。
達證券認為,租約更新缺乏彈性及零售空間競爭升溫,令該產托近期缺乏催化因素,但股價依然有望獲未來6.2%至6.5%股息支撐。
不過,聯昌研究因全年業績符合預期,上調2016至2017財政年每股盈利預測0.9%至1%。
(星洲日報/財經‧報導:郭曉芳)
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
新手们:怎样做功课呢?—— 二十四節令“股”
我还记得刚入股市的时候,对股票这门课程还真的是一窍不通,就凭着感觉和听来的消息行走天涯,觉得会上买就是了;跌了很多时候就不会STOP
LOSS抱着死,割爱后后悔莫及了。为了减少更多人走上我的步伐,这篇文章包含了24项我平时做功课时都会去了解的资料,而且在我的功课模板里肯定会有这
24项。刚入股市的或者是基本面的新手们,这里有24项资料,了解+解剖它们后会对功课上有很大的帮助,同时也减少选错公司的几率。来看看二十四节令
“股”吧:
共勉之,谢谢。
KaIの投资日记
1. Revenue
ü 营业,也就是公司所卖的产品或提供的服务。
ü 它也有几个名字,分别是Sales和Turnover。
ü 例如:西瓜公司主要卖西瓜,一年里卖了100粒西瓜,1粒西瓜卖RM2,那么西瓜公司一年的营业额就是100xRM2 = RM200了。
2. Gross profit
ü 毛利,也就是公司的营业额扣除产品成本后所剩下的数目。
ü 例如:西瓜公司所卖的一粒西瓜成本价值RM1,100粒西瓜就是成本价值RM100,那么公司所得毛利就是RM200-RM100=RM100。
3. Profit before tax
ü 税前盈利,也就是公司的毛利再扣除营业消费后所剩下的数目。
ü 例如:西瓜公司是需要水,电和租金来继续营业,而这些营业消费是RM30,那么公司所得的税前盈利是RM100-RM30=RM70。
4. Profit Attribute to shareholder
ü 净利,也就是公司的税前盈利扣除政府所规定的税率后所剩下的数目。
ü 例如:税是盈利的20%,那么西瓜公司扣除税后所得的净利是RM56。
5. EPS (Sens)
ü 每股净利,也就是公司的净利除于公司的股份。
ü 每间公司都是由一个庞大的资金组成,而这些资金就被股份衡量了。
ü 例如:西瓜公司的资金有RM2,000,然后被分为1000股份,那么一股价值RM2了。回去EPS,西瓜的每股净利是RM56除于1000,那就是RM0.056。不过账目里都是拿仙不拿分的,那么就变成了5.6 Sens了。
6. Gross profit margin (%)
ü 毛利润率,也就是公司的毛利除于营业额。
ü 这是测试公司的毛利占营业额多少巴仙,当然是越高越好了。
ü 例如:西瓜公司的毛利润率是50%(RM100/RM200 x 100%),这也代表公司每RM1的营业额赚了50%或RM0.50的毛利。
7. Profit margin (%)
ü 净利润率,也就是公司的净利除于营业额。
ü 这跟上一个差不远,所以是测试公司的净利占营业额多少巴仙。
ü 例如:西瓜公司的净利润率是28%(RM56/RM200 x 100%),这也代表公司每赚RM1的营业额就得到了RM0.28的净利。
8. Revenue Growth rate (%)
ü 营业成长率,这是比较今年和前一年的营业成长率,这当然也是越高约好了。
ü 例如:西瓜公司前一年的营业额是RM150,然后今年是RM200,那么营业额的成长率是33.33%(50/150 x 100%)。
9. Profit Growth rate
ü 净利成长率,这是比较今年和前一年的净利成长率,一样越高越好。
ü 例如:西瓜公司前一年的净利是RM40,然后今年是RM56,那么净利的成长率高达40%(16/40 x 100%)。
10. DPS (Sens)
ü 股息,Dividend per shares,也就是公司所给的股息。
ü 通常公司分两种方式来公布它们的股息,
ü 一是以仙(Sens)来公布股息,例如0.030仙;
ü 二是以巴仙(%)来公布股息,这可能会让一些投资者混乱点,其实巴仙是拿当时公司的Par Value来算就行了,例如20%,然后当时公司的Par Value是RM0.50,那么股息就是10仙(0.50 x 20%)。
ü 另外要收股息的投资者千万不要在股息的Ex-date前卖掉公司的全部股份,不然就享受不到股息了。
ü 凡是在Ex-date前买进公司就可享有股息,Ex-date当天买是得不到股息的哦。
ü 例如:西瓜公司公布1.5仙的股息,Ex-date在5/2/2016。
ü 凯手上有50个西瓜公司的股份,在4/2/2016加码至100股份。那么凯就可以享有RM15(100 x 0.15)的股息。
ü 另外Ex-date前一天市价RM2的西瓜公司会在Ex-date当天的开始价变成RM1.85(RM2-0.15)。
11. Dividend payout %
ü 股息派率,也就是公司的股息除于每股净利;也可使用公司所发的股息总额除于总净利额。这是算公司所给利息占净利的巴仙率。
ü 例如:西瓜公司的派息率是26.79%(1.5/5.6 x 100%)。
ü 另外股市里有些公司是属于REITs,它们都是以租金为主要收入,而且派息率都高达90%以上(这是被规定了),也就是它们把90%所赚到的分给股东们。
12. Current assets
ü 流动资产,这是包括公司的现金,货物,应收账款等等。
ü 流动资产是可以在短期内换成现金或非常流动性的。这对评估一间公司的健康水平非常重要。
13. Total assets
ü 总资产,这里包括了流动和不流动资产。
ü 而不流动资产包括了产业,器材,设备等等。
14. Current liabilities
ü 流动债务,这是包括公司的短期借款,应付贸易等等。
15. Total liabilities
ü 总债务,这里包括了流动和不流动债务。而不流动债务包括了长期借款。
ü 如果每年公司的总债务一直在高成长而不减的话,这可以代表公司的生意需要借钱来保持运作,这可能会让公司一时现金周转不宁。
16. Long term borrowing
ü 长期借款,这是被纳入不流动债务。
17. Short term borrowing
ü 短期借款,这是被纳入流动债务。
18. Total borrowings
ü 这是长期和短期借款加在一起的数目。
ü 一间公司的Total borrowing越低,公司的现金流就越健康。
ü 凯最喜欢零借款的公司了,毕竟零借款的公司是最健康的,而且买了后晚上也会睡得非常好。
ü 零借款的公司例如ECS,FLBHD,Magni等等。
19. Cash
ü 现金,这是一间公司里最重要的资产,而且越高越好,最好每年都在成长。
ü 公司里的大大小小动静都需要到现金,例如购买货物,扩大生意,员工的薪水,公司的使用成本等等。
ü 另外净现金也是很重要,因为有些公司的现金很充足,不过公司同时也可以拥有很高的总借款。
ü 所以我们需要把公司的总现金减掉总借款,得到的数目是正数的话就是净现金;
ü 相反负数的话就是负净现金了,这代表公司的现金还不了跟银行借的款项,是属于现金不健康水平。
20. Current ratio
ü 流动比率,也就是公司的流动资产除于流动负债,是比较两者的对比率。
ü 例如:西瓜公司的流动资产是RM5000;流动负债是RM2000,那么西瓜公司的流动比率就是2.5(5000/2000),也就是代表流动资产是流动负债的2.5倍。
21. NTA
ü 有形资产净值(Net Tangible Asset),也就是公司的总资产减总负债后再除于总股份。
ü 这个基本上是计算公司的每股净资产。在净资产的角度来看的话,计算结果大于公司股价,那么公司目前是被低估;
ü 相反计算结果小于公司股价,那么公司目前是被高估的。
22. ROE
ü 股东回酬率(Return on Equity),也就是公司的净利除于股东权益。
ü ROE是计算公司用股东权益来获得净利的效率,计算结果是算巴仙。
ü 例如:西瓜公司的净利是RM56;股东权益是RM500,那么它的ROE就是11.2%(56/500 x 100%)。
ü ROE是越高越好,凯建议基本要10%以上,最好在15%以上。
23. PE
ü 本益比(Price Earning),也就是公司的股价除于累计四季或一年的EPS。
ü PE是计算公司要利用几年的时间来回本,所以是越低越好了。
ü 凯本人觉得PE是把公司的市价和EPS两者紧紧得联系在一起,因为公司交出非常亮眼或进步的成绩(EPS),那么这会反映在公司的股价上,也就是公司会依它所值的本益比而让股价向上。
ü 例如:西瓜公司目前股价RM2,而EPS是15Sens那么它的本益比就是13.33(2/0.15)。
ü 那么在PE方面怎样看那间公司是被低估还是高估了呢?凯觉得凡是低于10的就是低估价位了,最好是在3至10之间。
ü 另外,目前大马股市的平均PE是15所以只要公司的PE高过这平均位,那么它就是被高估了,除非它是高成长的公司。
24. DY
ü 周息率(Dividend Yield),也就是公司的股息除于公司的股价。
ü DY是计算在公司目前的价位,我们可以得到多少巴仙的股市,这当然要比银行的定期率高,不然会亏本生意。
ü 例如:西瓜公司派息0.030仙;公司目前股价是RM2,那么公司的周息率是1.5%(0.030/2 x 100%)。
ü 大多数投资者都选高于3或4%的公司,因为一来可以当定存收息,二来股价上了就获得了资本收益(Capital Gain),一石二鸟。
共勉之,谢谢。
KaIの投资日记
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
市場放緩現收購良機‧AXIS產托放眼30億資產
(吉隆坡19日訊)AXIS產業信托(AXREIT,5106,主板產業投資信托組)看好產業市場放緩將帶來更多收購資產的機會,放眼管理的資產規模(AUM)上探30億令吉。
該公司首席執行員兼財務總監梁潔美在2015年全年業績匯報會上表示,產業市場雖然放緩,但給公司創造了更好的收購機會,因此公司相當樂觀看待今年的收購。
“2016年將會是`收購年’。”
梁潔美此前是該公司首席營運員,在今年1月1日升任為首席執行員。
將提昇巴生PDI中心
她表示,目前公司擁有34項資產,在1月杪及年中將會完成柔佛6項資產收購,屆時公司資產總數將增加至40項。
“此外,公司也計劃收購5項資產,類型包括霸級市場、倉庫及工業資產,資產總值估計為3億6千900萬令吉。”
展望未來,她表示,公司將會在今年把巴生PDI中心進行提昇工程,將該項資產打造成巨型分銷中心,該資產的提昇工程計劃書已經呈交給有關單位,目前不便透露太多。
根據文告,PDI中心位佔地50英畝,距離規劃中的輕快鐵3號線站約3.8公里。
梁潔美補充,電子商務發展越來越蓬勃,因此,該項資產可從中受惠。
她也表示,PDI中心進行提昇工程,難免不了會對公司的股息會造成影響,但公司資產眾多,因此影響有限。
此外,她也表示,公司今年將會有29%的出租空間租約到期,相關租約主要以工業資產為主,因此具備調漲租金能力。
該公司2015年共有82%的租約到期,並調高了8%的租金。
“公司目前的出租率雖然比去年減少了1%至91.97%,但還是屬於相當高的出租率,因此對仍樂觀看待2016財政年的表現。”
她補充,公司未出租的面積為56萬3千411方尺,若全面出租出去,每年的股息可提高至2.03仙。
以1股分拆成2股後計算,該公司2015財政年的股息為8.4仙。(星洲日報/財經)
Monday, January 18, 2016
倫敦計劃強穩‧大馬機構產業續“買進”
(吉隆坡18日訊)英國產業市場雖整體放緩,大馬機構產業(AMPROP,1007,主板產業組)位於倫敦第一區的高級產業計劃卻深受艾芬黃氏研究看好,認為在該公司股價近期回調後,趁低吸納機會也跟著浮現。
艾芬黃氏研究在報告中說,雖然大眾市場產業整體放緩,但高級和豪華產業卻不受影響,大馬機構產業旗下豪華產業的需求仍然強穩,旗下Campden
Hill計劃的預定率如今已攀升至50%,另一項重大產業計劃Burlington Gate的預定率也已增至90%。
“除了身處對的市場,我們認為強勁預定率與該公司的聯營策略有大有關係,新加坡上市酒店產業有限公司(HPL)和英國的Native置地都是該公司夥伴;
另外,大馬機構產業也將和新加坡淡馬錫控股聯手,在未來發展總值11億英鎊的Bankside Quater產業發展計劃。”
艾分黃氏表示,大馬機構產業也仍繼續找尋新投資機會,但並不急於新投資,原因是該公司手頭上仍有足夠的計劃,足以支持2016至2018年盈利。
“除誘人的估值外,盈利將擺脫過往的波動性,也是我們看好該公司的另一主因。”
艾分黃氏研究給予大馬機構產業目標價1令吉53仙,評級是“買進”,估計就目前股價而言,該公司2017和2018年週息率高達5至8%。(星洲日報/財經‧報導:李三宇)
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Datasonic Group - Eyeing New Jobs
We hosted Datasonic in a group meeting yesterday that was attended by 12 clients.
We believe the group’s recent passport chips job contract win, coupled
with the potential renewal of its existing contracts, maylikely propel
earnings to a new high in 2017. Upgrade to BUY, with our TP revised up
to MYR1.87 (from MYR1.51, 25% upside).
Renewals in the works. With its existing MyKad
contract set to expire by mid-2016, management is currently working on a
potential renewal by proposing the next generation of MyKad to contain
enhanced security features. Based on our channel checks, the official
award is likely take place by mid-2016, at an estimated total contract
value of MYR250mMYR300m. In addition, the company is trying to secure a
5-year extension to its existing passport photo-page contract, given the
betterthan-expected current run-rate. This could be worth
MYR300mMYR350m and, in our view, could materialize by 2H16.More passport jobs likely. Recall that Datasonic had, earlier on,secured a MYR319m 5-year contract for the provision of smart chips to be embedded in Malaysian national passports. While the 1 Dec 2016 commencement date came in later than we initially thought, we are positive on this latest contract win, which will propel earnings to new high come FY18 (Mar). In addition, the group is in active discussions with the Government for the provision of the passport booklet. Our checks with sources indicate that the contract would cover 12.5m-13.5m copies of booklets to be procured over a 5-year tenure, at a total value of MYR200m-MYR230m with an official award likely by Mar 2016.
Earnings revision and risks. Although we trim our FY17F EPS by 13.0% (we had earlier anticipated both its passport chip and booklet contracts to commence in Apr 2016), we upgrade FY18F EPS by 12.7% after factoring in higher profit margins from the two new contracts – in line with management’s latest guidance. Key risks to our forecasts include potential delays in renewals of its existing MyKad and passport photo-page contract and further delays in finalising the long-awaited passport booklet contract.
Upgrade to BUY. Given that the full-year earnings accretion from the new passport chip contract will only be felt in 2017, we are rolling forward our valuation to 2017. Based on an unchanged target P/E of 25x, our TP now stands at MYR1.87 (from MYR1.51). Given the appealing upside of over 20%, we upgrade our call to BUY.
Eyeing New Jobs Next-generation MyKad in the works.
We estimate that Datasonic currently enjoysan outstanding orderbook of
4.2m/3.6m copies of MyKad/MyKad consumablesrespectively, as of Sep 2015.
With the contracts set to expire by mid-2016, management is currently
working on potential renewal of the contracts by proposingthe next
generation of MyKad, which contains enhanced security features on the
national identification card. Based on our channel checks, the technical
evaluation process is currently ongoing – with an official award likely
to take place by mid-2016 before the existing contracts expire to
ensure continuity of supply.
Potential renewal of passport data-page contract.
Management highlighted that the run-rate for its existing provision of
photo-pages for Malaysian passports is clocking in at 2.5m-2.8m pa
vis-à-vis the initial projection of 2.0m-2.5m pa. In view of the pent-up
demand, the company is currently trying to secure a 5-year extension to
its existing contract. This is in line with our previous expectations,
as the group looks to cement its position as a leading national security
solutions provider. Should the extension materialise, we expect a
potential improvement in its overall profitability margins as we
understand that most of the equipment and hardware have been provided
for under its current contract.
Passport chip supply to commence in Dec 2016. Recall
that Datasonic had, earlier on, secured a 5-year contract for the
provision of smart chips to be embedded in Malaysian national passports.
The contract is valued at MYR318.8m, which translates into an average
selling price of MYR25.50 per chip. While the commencement date of 1 Dec
2016 is later than expected, we are positive on the earnings accretion
over the long run as this latest contract win will likely propel its
earnings to new high come FY18.
Passport book supply contract coming. To complete
its national passport offerings, Datasonic is in active discussions with
the Government for the provision of the passport book. Management
indicated that negotiations are crrently ongoing,with an official award
to take place as soon as 1Q16. We believe the official commencement date
will likely coincide with its passport chip contract, ie on 1 Dec 2016.
Our checks with sources indicate that the contract would cover
12.5m-13.5m copies to be procured over tenure of five years at a total
value of MYR200mMYR230m
抵銷數利空‧雲頂大馬強化本地業務
(吉隆坡14日訊)雲頂大馬(GENM,4715,主板貿服組)下半年將有多項設施啟用,進一步強化本地業務獨撐大局的優勢,足以抵銷初步開銷增加和英國業務疲弱等利空。
艾芬黃氏預計,雲頂高原綜合旅遊計劃(GITP)第一期10億令吉新設施,將在2016下半年開張,今年該公司將非常忙碌。
目前,擁有1千300間房的三星級酒店已完成,下半年陸續竣工的設施包括新纜車系統、Sky Avenue及Sky Plaza購物商場、多層停車場等,而20世紀霍士主題公園則預訂在2017年開張。
不過,管理層預計,接下來英國業務營運環境將面臨挑戰。
雖然該業務僅貢獻該集團約10%盈利,不過卻因貴賓數量顯著下滑而連續兩季面臨虧損,為改善此狀況,管理層採取吸引高端大眾市場策略,但效果不足以抵消貴賓人數顯著走跌效應。
2015年第三季,英國業務的貴賓人數按年跌90%。
儘管英國業務展望欠佳,但艾芬黃氏預見,貢獻集團80%盈利的本地業務強勁表現將支撐2016年盈利成長4.1%。
雖然雲頂綜合旅遊計劃工程還在進行中,2015年遊客人數依然強穩,該行看好,新設施在2016開張後,遊客人數將成長,不過,受納入新開張開銷影響,盈利成長被抑制。
有鑑於此,艾芬黃氏維持雲頂大馬的“持有”評級及4令吉30仙目標價不變。
今日閉市,雲頂大馬下滑8仙,報4令吉13仙。(星洲日報/財經‧報導:郭曉芳)
利好出盡‧評級遭砍‧國油化學一跌再跌
(吉隆坡14日訊)國油化學(PCHEM,5183,主板工業產品組)利好盡出,包括摩根士丹利在內的多家證券行不約而同調低評級,拖累該股近期“跌跌”不休,今日一度再猛跌46仙。
跌破7令吉
國油化學微挫4仙,以7令吉40仙掀開交易後,就節節敗退,7令吉關口失守。全天閉市,國油化學報6令吉98仙,共跌46仙或6.18%,成交量達2千172萬3千300股。
摩根士丹利將國油化學的評級從“加碼”降至“減碼”,目標價由7令吉13仙大砍至6令吉14仙;KAF西金研究的評級自“守住”降為“賣出”,目標價卻從6令吉30仙升至6令吉50仙。
股價估值逼近最高水平
KAF西金研究說,過去數月至今,國油化學的股價和化學品分歧明顯,加上其股價估值逼近歷來最高水平,促使該行轉為審慎。
興業研究指出,國油化學股價已升抵該行之前設定的7令吉56仙目標價,相信其股價已反映2016財年的21%盈利成長,有關出色成長是由更高使用率、新增產能和有利匯率所帶動。
該行表示,國油化學預期2016財年平均使用率達90%,因今年沒有重大保養維修計劃,這優於2013至2015年的使用率(分別為78%、80%和85%)。
另一項正面因素是該集團的沙巴氨尿素化肥廠(SAMUR)將於2016年下半年投產,令其產品組合每年增加194萬公噸。
該行指出,若SAMUR比預期早投產,財測將有望上調,惟一旦該廠未在2016財年啟動,財測將可能下調17%。
同時,國油化學也從美元走強中受惠,該集團的收入100%以美元計價,但成本僅60%以美元計價。
儘管使用率升高和產能增加,但是在目前全球經濟挑戰和油價走低之下,石化產品價格可能走下坡,從而打擊盈利。
“我們將國油化學2016年所有產品的價格預測下調3%-30%,我們看淡芳烴但預期聚合物和肥料價格持穩。”
由於油價崩跌,去年石化產品價格下跌10至40%。
興業下調國油化學評級至“中和”,目標價降低2%至7令吉19仙,這是根據17.1倍本益比,此估值比其他業者溢價10%,相信這是合理的,因為該集團的原料成本低廉,令賺幅高達逾30%,同時正進軍有利可圖的特殊化學領域。
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
檳3電子業者看淡今年需求
吉隆坡12日訊)檳城電子業者預期2016年首季需求保持疲軟,但仍看好全年盈利強勁成長,分析員因此對該領域保持“加碼”評級。
聯昌研究最近安排5位基金客戶走訪檳城3間電子廠,包括明試控股(AEMULUS,0181,創業板科技組)、東益電子(GTRONIC,7022,主板
科技組)和益納利美昌(INARI,0166,主板科技組),結果符合預期,沒有意外驚喜,2016年首季行業需求預料保持疲軟,部份由於季節性因素和美
元走強。
該行發現,一些客戶由於供應鏈需求疲軟和庫存水平升高而暫緩下訂,例如東益電子表示,其主要客戶在首季由於可穿戴產品需求疲軟和接受度緩慢而下砍訂單大部
份行業研究集團預期全球半導體銷售在2015年下跌1%,這是自2012年以來首度下跌,因全球終端用戶市場需求受美元高漲以及庫存逐漸調整的負面衝擊。
但是,大部份行業研究集團預期2016年需求將復甦2至3%,受全球經濟加快成長及智能手機和平板電腦市場需求改善所推動。
由於從2016年第二季起將有新旗艦型智能手機和新產品面市,大部份業者仍樂觀看待2016年前景。例如益納利美昌指出,儘管行業放緩,其主要客戶繼續提高晶圓貨運供封裝和測試。
大馬半導體業
2016年本益比14.5倍
2016年本益比14.5倍
聯昌表示,大馬半導體行業2016年本益比為14.5倍,接近過往中數的14倍,並比台灣同行折價6%,而大馬業者的3年每股盈利複合年均成長率為19%,台灣同行則為成長平平。
整體而言,聯昌研究對領域保持“加碼”評級,首選股項為益納利美昌,目標價4令吉。(星洲日報/財經小品‧作者:李勇堅)
感應器減產‧新產品延後‧東益3年財測下修
(吉隆坡12日訊)東益電子(GTRONIC,7022,主板科技組)感應器業務面對減產,以及新產品投產期延宕問題,迫使分析員下調2015至2017財政年財測,但若美元延續凌厲漲勢,將可為公司盈利帶來些許補益。
馬銀行研究表示,東益電子管理層透露今年首季將削減距離感應器產量20至25%,但預見產量將在第二季中逐步復甦,同時3D影像感測器投產期限也將從去年12月延遲至今年2月。
“感應器佔東益電子2015財政年營業額的42%。考量到距離感應器需求走緩,以及3D影像感測器產期延宕,我們決定削減公司2015至2017財政年淨利目標2至5%,連帶目標價也調低至8令吉。”
不過,東益電子淨美元出口利多因素依舊完好,馬幣兌美元匯率現企於4.39,比平均基準備4.10低了7%,馬銀行研究進行的敏感分析顯示,美元每變化1%將對公司盈利帶來約1%影響。
“若馬幣兌美元維持在現有水平,我們預見東益電子2016至2017財政年盈利目標潛存在上調空間。”
整體來看,馬銀行研究認為,投資者對蘋果削減訂單消息反應過度,導致東益電子股價已從今年1月5日的6令吉90仙下滑9%,但考量現有智能手機訂單削減可能與新機零件轉換鋪貨有關,相信配備更新和更高檔感應器的新智能手機將帶動今年第二季銷售回揚。
“以現有14.9倍本益比,以及6%回酬護盤下,東益電子股價仍潛存29%漲勢,因此維持其`買進’評級,更是半導體股投資首選。”
今日收市,東益電子下跌11仙,報6令吉24仙。(星洲日報/財經小品‧作者:洪建文)
Sunday, January 10, 2016
6.48億資產收購首季完成‧柏威年升至“買進”
(吉隆坡8日訊)柏威年產業信托(PAVREIT,5212,主板產業投資信托組)兩項斥資6億4千800萬令吉的資產收購計劃今年首季完成,安聯星展研
究調高評級至“買進”,預測在首邦與吉隆坡金三角區兩項資產今明年帶來3千180萬和4千360萬令吉盈利,並分別佔盈利權重的10%和11.4%。
該產託以4億8千800萬令吉,向環球東方(GOB,1147,主板產業組)收購首邦USJ的da:men購物中心和停車場。另以1億6千萬令吉收購隆金三角區之Intermark商場和367位停車場。
首邦產業出租率85%,每月租金平均每方呎9令吉20仙,有雙層1千672個停車位。次項隆金三角區Intermark商廈產業出租率74%,每月租金每方呎7令吉21仙,保證出租率74%。
分析員認為隆金三角區產業今明兩年出租率,可高達85至90%之間,管理層正致力努力使朝向全面出租狀態。
“假定到期租約租金調高增長10%,收購完成後租金大約從次季貢獻,預定兩產業製造3千180萬和4千360萬令吉盈利,盈利權重達10%和11.4%。”
明年注入柏威年擴展計劃
該產託的核心產業來自柏威年吉隆坡商廈,位於隆心臟地區使其租金每方呎平均高逾20令吉;分析員認為該產託公司明年將注入柏威年擴展計劃,預計明年可帶來3千670萬令吉盈利或比重的9.9%。
柏威年商廈擴展計劃目前由其主要大股東拿督林曉春控制之產業公司Urusharta Cemerlang有限公司發展,該資產為10層樓,預計2016年杪建成;出租面積達25萬方呎,預計出租率達90%。
分析員預計該產能將以約6億3千萬令吉或6.35%,以70對比30的發債發股比率融資。
分析員認為目前其負債率僅達18%,低於一般馬產託負債率的25%至35%,預定收購首邦與隆Intermark使負債率增至26%。
“收購柏威年擴展計劃資產後,負債率將高達30%,該產託今年杪也需融資其期的期債。”
分析員認為上述首兩項收購有助增加投資吸引力,一旦證實注入相關資產和吸引回酬和新收購消息,將有助重估。
主要風險則為消費情緒在消費稅實施趨緩,其他風險包括隆市將增13%零售空間而形成競爭,不過堅信柏威年吉隆坡商廈可獲高出租率。
建議“買進”,稍提高今明兩年財測0.4%和1.0%,目標價由1令吉65仙調高至1令吉70仙。(星洲日報/財經‧報道:張啟華)
搜尋股王之王‧6大證券行精選心水股
度過曲折的2014和2015年後,馬股究竟能否在今年揚眉吐氣?
投資者又該如何從超過900家上市公司中,選出最有希望突圍的公司?
配合新一年的到來,《投資致富》為大家介紹各證券行精心挑選的“2016年首選股”,並再自行做一些對比和過濾,讓各位參考。
(注:由於一些證券行首選股名單太長,本文只列其中10家。)
成長為王
富時綜指過去兩年表現低迷,業績黯淡無光肯定是最大肇因;因為,縱面對外資脫逃、馬幣貶值、經濟放緩等利空,許多盈利成長突出的公司仍在同期大放異彩,顯示“高成長”的確是當今的投資王道。
據《投資致富》觀察,在各證券行的首選股中,就有不少是以高盈利成長為主題;其中,去年完成收購計劃、並贏得巨額訂單的星光資源(SKPRES,7155,主板工業產品組),即是受不少分析員看好的成長股之一。
大眾研究、肯納格研究和達證券研究分別估計星光資源淨利將在2016財政年成長93.3%、69.5%及80.82%;因此,雖然現有股票估值已不便宜,3家證券行仍對星光資源情有獨鍾,列入首選股名單里。
至於和中國伙伴聯手大砸70億令吉在越南發電領域的捷碩(JAKS,4723,主板建筑組),則獲艾芬黃氏研究獨厚,估計其淨利將於2016年強勁復甦,取得255%成長率,是艾芬黃氏首選股名單中預估淨利成長最強勁的公司。
而在大眾研究的精選小資股名單中,淨利料在2016年取得高成長的公司亦不少,除上文提到的星光資源外,畢達良(PRESBHD,5204,主板貿服組)和I公司(IBHD,4251,主板產業組)亦上榜,明年預估淨利成長率分別達125%和108%。
眾多證券行中,聯昌研究顯然最喜歡高成長主題,因該公司的首選小資本股名單中,有80%都是明年預估淨利成長非常強勁的公司,包括畢達良、佳源食品
(KAWAN,7216,主板消費品組)、OWG控股(OWG,5260,主板貿服組)、MYEG服務(MYEG,0138,主板貿服組)。
股息為王
對長期投資者來說,股息是不可或缺的“紅利”;設有固定派息政策的公司能提昇股東現金流,因投資者每隔一段時間即可兌現一些投資回報,高息還能強化股價抗跌性,在市場動蕩時深受投資者歡迎。
若以股息為主題,業績穩定、規模超群的馬來亞銀行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融組)儼然最受分析員青睞,獲豐隆、達證券和聯昌研究列為2016年首選股之一,預期週息率高達6.3%至7.1%之間,可說是藍籌股之中的佼佼者。
另一家獲分析員青睞的高息藍籌股,是週息率料高於6%的楊忠禮機構(YTL,4677,主板貿服組),推薦的證券行是聯昌。
同時,素來以高息聞名的產業信託則獲艾芬黃氏研究垂青,怡保花園產托(IGBREIT,5227,主板產業投資信托組)和柏威年產業信托(PAVREIT,5212,主板產業投資信托組)雙雙獲該行點名,預期週息率分別高達7.2%和6.1%。
整體來說,預估週息率超過5%的首選股不多,更多首選股的週息率只介於2至4%之間,顯示週息率並非唯一考量,還必須兼具良好成長展望才能贏得證券行青睞。
估值為王
低廉的股票估值,一般暗示股票價值可能被市場忽略或低估,未來潛能未反映在股價上,替投資者提供趁低進場機會。有鑑於此,估值自然成為許多投資者選股時的主要考量之一。
以本益比作准,深受聯昌研究看好的勝利者國際(SIGN,7246,主板消費品組)是各首選股中估值最低的公司,2016年預估本益比只5.9倍;勝利者國際是去年的焦點小資本股之一,股價和業績皆有傲人斬獲,但今年可否延續往年強勢尚待觀察。
渡過失意一年的亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組),業績展望仍受看好,加上股價已明顯滑落,2016年的預估本益比已跌至區區6倍;縱然估值低企,亞航並未廣受各證券行推薦,只入圍大眾精選名單。
柔佛知名小資本建築股金輪企業(KIMLUN,5171,主板建筑組),亦因成長展望備受看好而獲肯納格研究點名,預估本益比只有6.3倍,也是該行首選
名單中唯一一家建築股。至於盈利料在明年強勁復甦的捷碩,預估本益比也只有7.7倍,處偏低水平,因此獲艾芬黃氏研究青睞。
由於本益比估值是以公司財測算出,因此若證券行未來調整財測,預估估值也可能跟著改變,投資者須注意這點。
攻守兼備
總結:
總結:
綜合各證券行首選股名單,不難發現在大環境仍充滿挑戰之際,分析員在選股時繼續著重“攻守兼備”,除了選上一些主攻的抗跌型大藍籌,也不忘把一些業務具成長動能的中小資本股納入名單中,以期強化整體回酬潛力。
其中,最受證券行歡迎的公司儼然是國家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板貿服組),6家證券行均把國能列為2016年首選股的一員,原因相信是其業務非常抗跌,且去年跌勢令估值顯得更誘人。
另外,盈利可望復甦的銀行股也獲不少證券行青睞,最受歡迎的當屬馬銀行和聯昌集團(CIMB,1023,主板金融組),前者出現在3家證券行首選股名單內,後者則獲兩家證券行看好。
至於過去兩年深獲青睞的油氣股,則因展望受油價低迷打擊,幾乎在各證券行首選股名單中絕跡,只有沙肯石油(SKPETRO,5218,主板貿服組)和阿瑪達(ARMADA,5210,主板貿服組)各獲聯昌和肯納格點名,扳回一些顏面。
部份中小資本股的強勁業績成長展望明顯引起證券行的興趣,使各首選股名單中出現越來越多樣化的中小資本股;在業績成長展望保持強勁的前提下,未來估計會有更多中小資本股引起證券行的注意。(星洲日報/投資致富‧焦點策劃‧文:李三宇)
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