How much profit does a company make? This may seem like a simple
question but in reality is chock-full of nuance. There's the net income
which shows up on a company's income statement - this is the number that
most people focus on. The big problem with net income is that it is by
definition an accounting number. Capital expenditures made by a company
are depreciated over many years, so a company could be hemorrhaging
money with net income largely unaffected. Also, non-cash charges, such
as write-offs, are deducted from net income. These don't affect the
amount of cash a company generates but reduce the "earnings" none the
less.
A better option is looking at the free cash flow. Free cash flow is a
measure of the actual cash generated by a company. Free cash flow is
convenient to use because it shows up directly on the cash flow
statement. But there is actually a better option: Owner Earnings. Warren
Buffet, famed value investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, defined
owner earnings in his 1985 letter to shareholders.
These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges...less (c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume....Our owner-earnings equation does not yield the deceptively precise figures provided by GAAP, since (c) must be a guess - and one sometimes very difficult to make. Despite this problem, we consider the owner earnings figure, not the GAAP figure, to be the relevant item for valuation purposes...All of this points up the absurdity of the 'cash flow' numbers that are often set forth in Wall Street reports. These numbers routinely include (a) plus (b) - but do not subtract (c).Warren Buffet
At first glance this definition of owner earnings appears to be nearly
identical to that of free cash flow. However, there are important
differences. Owner earnings is the amount of cash which can be pulled
out of a company each year if capital expenditures are limited to only maintenance capex -
only capital expenditures needed to maintain the current business. The
amount of capital expenditure listed on the cash flow statement is the
total, comprised of both maintenance capital expenditures and growth
capital expenditures. Furthermore, this maintenance capex should be
averaged over a few years to smooth out the result.
Another difference between free cash flow and owner earnings is that
free cash flow includes changes in working capital. In general, working
capital fluctuates from year to year, and these fluctuations clearly
should not be counted. They would have the effect of unduly inflating or
depressing the picture of profitability. Only necessary changes
in working capital needed to maintain the business should included in
the calculation of owner earnings, so they can usually be ignored. The
formula for owner earnings is as follows:
Owner Earnings =
Net Income
+ Depreciation, amortization, etc.
+ Non-cash charges (not related to working capital)
+ Interest payments adjusted for taxes
- Average maintenance capital expenditures
- Permanent changes in working capital
It's important to remember what owner earnings represent: it is the
average amount of cash which can be pulled out of a business after all
expenditures necessary to maintain the business and the current unit
volume. I've added interest payments since I want to calculate the
profit I would be able to pull out each year assuming I bought the
company outright and paid off all outstanding debt.
Owner earnings allows you to value a company based on its current
profitability. However, maintenance capex is not a generally available
number and is often difficult to determine. Using the total capital
expenditure will most likely underestimate the profitability of the
company.
If you use owner earnings in a discounted cash flow calculation, you
must be careful. If only maintenance capex is subtracted then projecting
growth faster than inflation doesn't make any sense since the growth
isn't being paid for. If you project real growth after inflation, you
must use the total average capital expenditures.
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