Gamuda - Conference call clears the air

Target RM5.24 (Stock Rating: ADD)

We came away from the conference call feeling positive about a recovery in newsflow in 1H14. Rumoured-driven concerns over the MRT project and a possible forced takeover of water assets were addressed. The only negative surprise was the timing of the Gemas-JB double tracking project which is now slated for 2015. We cut our FY14-16 EPS by 3-6% to reflect job flow delays. We cut our RNAV by 6% to factor in KDEB's valuation for Splash, EPS cuts and the higher 70% share in Kesas Highway. Thus, our target price, still pegged to a 10% discount to RNAV, drops. We think that the negatives are largely in the share price (-11.3% YTD). Catalysts are MRT/PDP approval and new takeover offers from PAAB. Maintain Add. Gamuda remains our top sector pick.

What Happened 

Conference call. We hosted a conference call with Gamuda's management for 14 fund managers today. It was represented by Senior Group GM of Investor Relations, Clarence Boudville. The key takeaways were: 1) The execution of the MRT SBK Line will accelerate and mitigate earnings downside risks from the lack of job wins in FY14. 2) The rollout of the RM8bn Gemas-JB double tracking job in 2015 looks more likely. 3) In the near term, key developments for the MRT 2 are the Cabinet approval and appointment of the project development partner (PDP), which should benefit Gamuda. The timing of awards is from late 2015 or early 2016. 4) As Section 114 of Wasia is not applicable, it is more hopeful about a positive outcome for water takeover talks. 

What We Think 

Concerns look overdone. Clarifications on Gamuda's prospects with regard to the MRT 2 should reassure investors, though the timing of awards will not be this year, as expected. The next catalysts should be the Cabinet approval and appointment of the PDP. We remain optimistic over a favourable outcome from the water takeover talks led by the federal government. Its 40%-owned Splash could be offered a valuation top-up, if compensation/receivables are included. This should revive the special dividend story for FY15. The negative surprise was that the award of the RM8bn Gemas-JB double tracking project is likely to take place in 2015. 

What You Should Do 

Accumulate. The stock has declined 11.3% since end-13. We think that the MRT 2 and water takeover concerns should subside if we see any solid progress in the coming months.

MRCB OUTPERFORM - Dark Horse of the Year?

We are upgrading MRCB to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM with a higher Target Price of RM2.01 from RM1.40 based on SOPderived valuation (30% discount). We met up with MRCB’s management recently for an update, especially after the re-emergence of catalysts namely: (i) Kwasa Land’s announcement on the RM50b Kwasa Damansara project and (ii) potential sale of one of its non-core assets, i.e. DUKE highway, which has recently been reflected in its share prices (+20.2%YTD). We came away from the meeting feeling positive and comfortable with the Group’s prospects. We also now believe that MRCB is executing its turnaround plans it shared in a previous analysts’ briefing. There are few major developments in the pipeline that will accrete the Group’s value namely: (i) disposal of its 30%-stake in DUKE highway to Ekovest (i.e. currently owned 70% of the highway), (ii) monetising its property investment portfolio worth more than RM1.5b via REITs, and (iii) higher possibility of replenishing its orderbook of about RM1.0b this year. On top of that, we believe the Kwasa Damansara news flows will further boost sentiment for MRCB this year. Hence, with more than 30% potential upside from current price, MRCB could be a “Dark Horse” of the year after being bashed down by investors due to negative news/development (i.e. huge provisions of RM167m due to poor executions, EDL “limbo”, PJ Sentral’s NGD-PKNS court tussle) last year. After re-visiting our SOPderived valuation, we have upgraded MRCB to OUTPERFORM with higher Target Price of RM2.01 (from RM1.40 previously).
Disposal of 30%-DUKE to be announced soon? Management is not denying the fact that it is currently in talks with Ekovest to dispose its 30% stake in DUKE highway. Based on various newspapers (i.e. The Edge and The Star) reports, MRCB might be disposing the asset at RM200m - RM230m. This means that the highway is valued at around RM667m - RM767m, which is in tandem with the valuation done by Ekovest’s independent valuer, BDO, of about RM647m – RM700m in October 2013. There will be a proper announcement with regards to this disposal which we believe will materialize in the short-term (1-3 months). We estimate MRCB’s net gain at RM130m, which will be utilized to pare down its debt.
To monetise its property investment through REITs. We also understand that MRCB is looking to inject its property investments valued at RM1.7b into REITs within this year. We view this positively as it will transfer RM1.0b of debts out of MRCB books. This “de-gearing” will improve MRCB’s balance sheet significantly i.e. net gearing to reduce substantially to 1.1x from 1.7x currently. Therefore, MRCB has room to gear up its capacity to expand its property business by landbanking in strategic location in Klang Valley and Penang.
Orderbook replenishment of RM1.0b this year? After the sluggish performance in its construction division (i.e. due to the absence of big contracts) in recent years, management is optimistic that the division will announce two big contracts (i.e. building-related project and KTMB track rehabilitation) this year worth RM1.0b. This will lift its existing orderbook of RM1.6b to RM2.6 which will support its construction earnings for the next 3-4 years.
Kwasa Damansara’s prime developer? Finally, the Kwasa Damansara (formerly known as Sungai Buloh Rubber Research Institute land) news came back into the picture after the project owner, Kwasa Land, made a press statement recently that it will be calling for a tender next month. Kwasa Land added that the project will generate RM50b GDV. Kwasa Damansara sits on 2,330 acres of landbank and it will be a “transit-oriented development” as the landbank is sandwiched between two upcoming MRT Line 1 stops in Sg Buloh. Hence, it is highly likely that MRCB could win a big slice of the project given its successful transit-oriented development in KL Sentral. This could significantly replenish MRCB’s landbank after most of its KL Sentral landbank will be depleted in 2015-2016. Assuming MRCB secured 20% of the RM50b GDV, we estimate our SOP-derived valuation to add another 21 sen to RM2.22/share. We expect more Kwasa Damansara-related news to continue to flow in coming months, which should help support the stock.
Upgrade to OUTPERFORM. After re-visiting our SOP-derived valuation, we have upgraded MRCB to OUTPERFORM with higher Target Price of RM2.01 from RM1.40 previously. Our revised valuation is after the following revisions/updates:
(i) Increasing the 30%-stake in DUKE highway’s valuation to RM197m from RM43m to reflect the latest valuation of the highway from an independent valuer, BDO, that was appointed by EKOVEST (NR) in October 2013.
(ii) Revising its property investment valuation to RM1.7b from less than RM1.0b as we had underestimated its value previously.
(iii) Expanding fwd-PE multiples for its construction division to 10x from 7x premised on the expectation of higher chances to meet the orderbook replenishment target of RM1.0b this year. In fact, fwd-PER of 10x is still 29% lower than average construction stock’s fwd PER of about 14x
Source: Kenanga

Sunway REIT - 2Q14 Within Expectations

Actual vs. Expectations 1H14 realised net income (RNI) of RM117.4m came in within expectations, making up 52% and 55% of street and our estimates, respectively.
Dividends  2Q14 GDPS of 2.23 sen per unit (which includes a non-taxable portion of 0.34 sen). This implies 1H14 GDPS of 4.2 sen which makes up 55% of our full-year estimates.
Key Results Highlights QoQ, GRI was strong, growing by 10% to RM110.3m on the back of (i) strong rental growth from Sunway Pyramid (SP) as the mall achieved 14.6% rental reversions on 87% of a 3-year term of renewed leases/new tenancies (61% of NLA), (ii) Sunway Carnival enjoying strong reversions from spaces up for renewals despite the 1.1ppt drop in occupancy rates to 92.8% (iii) higher revenue contribution for hospitality from Sunway Resort Hotel and Spa and Pyramid Tower Hotel from the aggressive promotional activities this quarter after a weak 1Q14, and (iv) Sunway Hotel Seberang Jaya’s revenue doubled post refurbishment. Thus, RNI increased in tandem with topline by 12% to RM62.0m, despite the increased expenditure (+6%) and operating cost (+12%).
 YoY, topline grew marginally by only 2% to RM210.5m. However, operating costs reduced significantly by 10% due to (i) closure of Sunway Putra Mall for refurbishment, (ii) lower utilities expense at Sunway Pyramid (SP) from completion of the chiller retrofit exercise, and (iii) lower building upkeep expense at SP, which boosted RNI growth by a substantial 9% to RM117.4m.
Outlook  Management expects to spend an additional RM155m on CAPEX for 2H14, and an RM280m in FY15E, mainly for the refurbishment of Sunway Putra Place.
 While the hotel segment has done well given aggressive promotional efforts, there could still be challenges as SPP is adversely affected by on-going refurbishment, coupled with the competitive hospitality environment.
 Challenging asset acquisition environment due to the low cap rates of 5%-6% currently, while management is only targeting assets that deliver 6.5%-7.0% yields.
Change to Forecasts We make no changes to FY14E and FY15E GDPS forecasts of 7.6 sen and 7.9 sen, respectively, implying yields of 6.1% (net: 5.5%) and 6.3% (net: 5.6%) respectively.
Rating Upgrade to MARKET PERFORM (from UNDERPERFORM)
Valuation  We roll forward our earnings to FY15E as we have hit the half year mark for FY14E. Hence, we upgrade TP to
RM1.23 (from RM1.19) based on unchanged FY15E target gross dividend yield of 6.4% (net: 5.8%) or a +2.3ppt spread to the 10-yr MGS of 4.15%.
Risks to Our Call Downside risk to our calls lies with bond yield expansion, while downside risk to our earnings depends on further weaknesses from hospitality.
Source: Kenanga

To Buy or Not to Buy: Quality first, then Potential Return at an Acceptable Risk - investbullbear

To Buy or Not to Buy: Quality first, then Potential Return at an Acceptable Risk.

 

To buy or not to buy - the bottom line is the potential reward and the amount of risk that you must accept to achieve it.

Always assuming you have done your due diligence concerning the quality issues, look to see if the hypothetical total return is sufficient to warrant adding the stock to your portfolio.  If the stock appears to be capable of doubling its value in five years, it's probably a good buy.

If you have been cautious enough in your estimates of earnings growth and future PEs, and if the potential reward is at least 3x the risk of loss, you'll have no qualms about buying the stock.



Use Your Common Sense

Investing is far from a precise science.

What you lose in accuracy because you are building one estimate upon another, you gain by being conservative in your estimates.

If you are careful to take the more cautious choice at every opportunity, you are rarely going to be disappointed at the outcome.

A small difference - a 1% difference in the risk would translate into only a small difference in the share price - is not enough to warrant waiting for the price to be just right.

If the price is more than just a little too high for the value parameters to satisfy you, however, you'll want to complete your study and wait for the price to come down to a more reasonable figure.



Summary:

1.  Always the Quality criteria must be met first
2.  Then look at the Total Return - this must be >15% per year.
3.  Only buy when the Risk is acceptable, that is, the potential reward must be at least 3x the risk of loss.
4.  Don't squabble over pennies when you are buying.

REMEMBER:  Prices can fluctuate by as much as 50% on either side of their averages during the course of the year; so you might be pleasantly surprised when a price you thought beyond hope just happens to materialize one day.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2014/01/to-buy-or-not-to-buy-quality-first-then.html

Value Vs Growth kcchongnz

Growth Vs Value kcchongnz



Some people may wonder why I emphasize in value, value and value and not growth, growth and growth in investing. Is growth investing separable from value investing?

A firm with a higher growth will grow its earnings at an accelerated rate compared to a low growth firm. Assuming a firm A earns 10 sen a share a year now and it pays no dividend, with all its earnings reinvested into the business with the same return. Assuming its earnings grows at 10% a year. In 5 years time, its EPS will grow to 16 sen (10*(1+10%)^5).  If the growth rate is 30%, EPS after 5 years will be 37 sen, more than double that of the growth at 10%. Table 1 below shows the EPS at different growth rate.
Table 1: Earnings growth rates

Earnings growth	5%	10%	15%	20%	30%
EPS in 5 years	$0.13	$0.16	$0.20	$0.25	$0.37

So shouldn’t a stock with higher expected growth rate sell at a higher valuation? Of course it should, but that is only the first-level thinking. But one needs second-level thinking; that is how much higher should it be? This still brings us to the concept of value investing, value, value and value; that “The value of a firm is the sum of expected future cash flows generated by the firm discounted to the present value”.
Assuming stock A above is selling at $1.00 and hence at a PE ratio of 10. Let’s say my required return investing in A is 10%. In 5 years time A’s EPS grows to 16 sen. Further assume that A is still selling at a PE of 10 in 5 year’s time, or $1.60. The present value of this future cash flow is also $1 (1.6/(1+10%)^5). So if you have bought the share at $1, you are paying a fair price. If you pay 1.50 for the stock now, or at a PE of 15, you are paying a high price; but you pay 50 sen for it or at a PE of 5, you got a real bargain.
Now let us look at a stock B with present EPS of 10 sen also but a high expected growth rate of earnings of 20%. Its EPS will grow to 25 sen in 5 years time. Assuming you pay a higher price at $2 to buy B now, or a PE of 20 and after 5 years, it is still selling at a PE of 20, the price then will be $5.00 (20*0.25). If you discount this price at 10% back to the present value, it is $3.10, more than 50% above the price you pay. You got a great deal even if you pay a higher price of PE of 20 for a stock B growing at 20% for the next 5 years. Table 2 below shows the effect of growth rate and PE ratios on the fair prices of stocks.
Table 2: Effect of growth and PE ratio on stock prices

Earnings Growth	PER
$1.00	5.0	10	15	20	25	30
5.0%	$0.40	$0.79	$1.19	$1.58	$1.98	$2.38
10.0%	$0.50	$1.00	$1.50	$2.00	$2.50	$3.00
15.0%	$0.62	$1.25	$1.87	$2.50	$3.12	$3.75
20.0%	$0.77	$1.55	$2.32	$3.09	$3.86	$4.64
25.0%	$0.95	$1.89	$2.84	$3.79	$4.74	$5.68
30.0%	$1.15	$2.31	$3.46	$4.61	$5.76	$6.92

We have seen that it is justified to pay a higher price for stock B which has a higher growth than A. If investors see the consistency of the growth in B, they may be willing to pay a higher valuation for it 5 years later. As shown from Table 2, if the rate of growth is maintained at 20%, and valuation expanded to a PE of 30, the present value of stock B is worth $4.64.
The problem is the “growth” we are talking about is the future expected growth, a forecast figure which is very difficult to predict. The growth estimate, especially those with very high rates often does not last long enough to justify the high PE.  In the case of stock B, if the forecast growth rate is lower than expected, say at 10%, instead of 20%, and that the PE ratio contracted to 15 as a result, investors who have paid $2.00 initially would have its present value dropped to $1.50 as shown in Table 2. Even analysts got their forecasts wrong most of the time. So how good is yours?
There were numerous studies about the returns of the growth and value strategy and the results of all studies were consistent.  Value investing strategies outperformed growth strategies.  This held true regardless of which variable was used to identify value stocks.  Variables that were used to identify value stocks included price/earnings, price/book value, price/cash flow, price/free cash flow and dividend yield.
Although growth stocks initially experience higher growth rates than value stocks, the growth rates of both quickly revert toward the mean.  When investing in stocks, investors demonstrate over-optimism for growth stocks and over-pessimism for value stocks.  Several researchers expect the value investing advantage to continue, based upon the persistent nature of human behaviour.

KC Chong (26/1/14)

Pearl City Update - Bursa D

Sunday, 26 January 2014

 

This is the latest master plan of Pearl City.

 

 

 

For its residential component, upcoming project should be Rain Tree Park, which is a luxury gated & guarded community. Pearl Tropika which is adjacent to the Rain Tree Park, should be lower cost non-gated development.

 

Currently Rain Tree Park has been opened for registration. It comprises duplex villas, double storey terrace and link semi-D. There is still no detail on its site plan, pricing and GDV.

 

 

 

 

For its commercial component, other than Gems International School, there are also proposed medical center and retirement village next to each other.

 

Though Pearl City mall is still in planning & negotiation stage, its surrounding Pearl Avenue shop offices are all sold out and its construction has been running fast.

 

There are 5 units of proposed drive-through/commercial buildings besides the mall. It will be nice if McD comes in.

 

Tambun Indah's most recent launch, Bukit Residence, a gated & guarded development at Bukit Mertajam hot area Song Ban Kheng road, is receiving encouraging response. Its double storey terrace price starts from approximately RM500k.

 

Thus, I think Tambun Indah will be able to produce good financial results in 2014, even though a lot of projects have been completed in 2013. To continue its growth, it needs to purchase more strategic landbank for future development.

 

http://bursadummy.blogspot.com/2014/01/pearl-city-update.html

斤经济较：亚航巨人生病了？ - 夜月

大马的公司可以到达国际的擂台，其实少之又少。而在短时间可以达到这个目的的，亚航可算是首屈一指。亚航是大马之光，其创办人Tony Fernandes更是许多年轻人的偶像。然而，为什么从2012年下半年开始，亚航的股价就节节下降，是不是这个巨人生病了呢？在这里，我们来慢慢的探讨这个谜团。

 

 

亚航股价下降原因有3：

1 国际汽油价格上升

2 美元走强

3 竞争增加

 

1 国际汽油价格上升

自2009年开始，汽油价格就从50美元快速的上涨到100美元。对航空业来讲，汽油可算是最大的成本。而汽油的成本又很难转嫁给消费者。因为对一些人来说，飞机是必需品（工作需要）。但是对很多人来说，飞机是奢侈品（旅游）。所以增加的成本，航空公司只有扛。

 

 

 

2 美元走强

美元从2013年开始走强，从1美元：2.9马币到现在的1美元：3.3马币。由于QE的退场，美元预测会继续走强。由于汽油是以美元计算的。美元走强代表要付更多的马币来购买汽油，更加重了成本。

 

 

 

3 竞争增加

2012年开始，就有传言Malindo（印尼大马航空公司的合并）将会进军大马。从以前以来，大马航空业都是由马航和亚航瓜分，现在来多一个竞争者。对廉价航空公司而言，增加竞争就等于增加价格削剥战，红海的战争。这个才是亚航价格下跌的主要原因。

 

总结：虽然目前大马航空业处于低潮期，但是低潮期正是考验公司的能力。能安然度过低潮期的公司才能算是真正的好公司。

http://moonitez89.blogspot.com/2014/01/blog-post_7769.html

年报的重点 ~乡下佬~

上两个星期有两个人问我年报应该特别注意那几个地方，今天又有人问我，结果我找了很久才找到，够力，人老了，记性也不好了，哈哈哈。

以防万一，放出来做一个记录：

一般上年报我一定会看以下几点：

1. Group structure = 公司的结构

2. Chairman statement = 主席会在这里汇报过往一年发生过的事情，也会汇报公司的业绩和业务发展。同时，也会这里宣布股息，来年的发展等等。

3. Segment results = 公司如有很多个不同的业务，这里会有一些资料。

4. Balances sheet / Income statement / Cash flow statement = 拿数据的地方，也是了解公司财务状况的地方。

5. List of properties = 公司的资产

6. 30 Largest shareholding = 三十大股东的列表

~乡下佬~
24.01.2014

Why I sold R Sawit & SOP to buy Jaya Tiasa - Koon Yew Yin

Koon Yew Yin: 25^th Jan 2014
If you look at R Sawit 2011 annual report you will see that my family owned a total of 51.4 million shares which we bought at an average price of about 60 sen and sold when the price went above Rm 1.00.
If you look at SOP 2011 annual report you will see that my family owned 15,4 million shares which we bought at about Rm 3 in 2010 and we sold when the price went above Rm 6.
About 3 years ago when we bought SOP their palms were younger and I could foresee its profit growth prospect. For the same reason we are using our entire sale proceeds to buy Jaya Tiasa.
At present, we do not have any more R Sawit or SOP shares. I have also sold all my TSH and Ta An to buy JT. Readers do not need to tell me R Sawit, SOP, TSH or Ta An is better than JT.

The price charts for R Sawit and SOP show that prices have appreciated while Jaya Tiasa share price has been depressed for a long time because it has not been showing much profit due to the young age of their palms. However, JT’s FFB production is projected to increase rapidly in the next few years as indicated by the FFB production chart.




On 18^th Jan 2014, Alvin Tai, CFA from RHB research and I gave a talk on investment in the planation sector in Ipoh. About 120 people attended.
As all investors should know that the price of palm oil is the most important factor which affects the profit of all plantation companies. Alvin has calculation and charts to show that the current CPO price up trend will continue for the near future because Indonesia will have less palm oil for export. The reasons are:
A. Most of their palms are old and beyond their production peak.
B. Their economy is fast improving and people want to consume more palm oil.
C. There are more vehicles on the road and to reduce fossil fuel import, the Indonesian Government has mandated 10% use of biodiesel. As a result, 3 million tons of palm oil will be used to produce biodiesel. In 2012 Indonesia produced a total of 31 million tons of palm oil.
D. For the same reasons as in Indonesia, Malaysia is also mandating 10% use of biodiesel.
E. Due to population and economy increase of the whole world, more palm oil will be consumed.

Alvin considers Southern Acid and Jaya Tiasa are the best buys because SA is the cheapest among plantation shares and JT has the fastest increase of FFB production in the next few years and its share price has been depressed for a long time. You must bear in mind that famous companies like KLK, UP, SOP, TSH etc have been showing better earnings than JT before and they have been fully valued.  They are no longer cheap. Moreover, their FFB production rate of increase will be slower relative to JT.


I am obliged to tell you that Jaya Tiasa is my major investment holding and I do not need you to buy to support its share price. If you decide to buy, you are buying it at your own risk. However, if you think that TSH, Ta AN, SOP, R Sawit are better, you do not need to tell me because I have already sold all of them to buy JT.
As I said before the most important share selection criterion is profit growth prospect and the faster the profit increases, the faster the share price will move up. 
Koon Yew Yin

One Common Misunderstanding in Value Investing: Patience for Buy - Xaivier Chia

Patience is the state of endurance under difficult circumstances (ref. Wiki). In stock market investment, there are two very difficult circumstances that investors need to endure - Bull Market and Bear Market. In this article, I am going talk a little bit about Patience in Stock Market investment. Particularly, to try to understand the role of Patience in both Bear and Bull Market.

 

Bear Market

Situation:

• During Bear Market, market is full of bad news. The trend of market price goes downward in a long period of time. Most investors lose their faith in market.   

Good Patience

• Personally, I think during Bear Market, we should be very patience to wait for very attractive prices of good businesses for long term investment. As a value investor, you should be able to 'estimate' the bottom line of a company, any deal that has more than 50% discount is already a very good investment for me.

Bad Patience

• One bad practise I think is to be very patience to wait until other people are optimistic about the future of the market. These kind of people do not like to do homework. However, they are very hardworking to find 'tips' and follow the atmosphere of the market.

 

Bull Market

Situation:

• During Bull Market, market is full of good news. The trend of market price goes upward gradually. Most investors are very optimistic about future.  

Good Patience

• Personally, I think during Bull Market, we should be very patience to wait for very attractive prices of good businesses for long term investment. As a value investor, you should be able to 'estimate' the bottom line of a company, any deal that has more than 30% discount is already a very good investment for me.

Bad Patience

• One bad practise I think is to be very patience to wait for market collapses, bubble bursts, and so on. I still remember during the second half year of 2009, many 'investors' discouraged other people to enter market (buy in) because market was already rebounded 'significantly'. If you look back from now, it is a very bad decision.

 

Luckily, I met my mentor and he advised me that we should buy in as long as we can find a good deal in the market. After practise his advice for years, I do achieve my investment goal annually.

 

In short, please do not simply be patience and let's make friend with Bull and Bear. That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates.

 

斤经济较：一步一步解开Zhulian奇迹之谜 - 夜月

档案名称：Zhulian奇迹

发生日期：24/1/2014

发生经过：股价一天大跌20%以上

发生原因：寻找中。。。

 

Zhulian奇迹事件发生以后，大家会觉得在股市里没有不可能的事。Zhulian这么一间大公司，股价也会在一天之内狂泻。基本上，在网上流传的原因有3个：

第一 即将到期的Zhulian-CA

第二 估值过高

第三泰国暴乱事件

 

第一  即将到期的Zhulian-CA

基本上我不会去深入研究，因为它绝对不是凶手，最多只是个帮凶。Zhulian是一家市值超过RM1000m的公司，股价是很难被操纵的，最多也是顺势压低而已，所以这里不多谈。不过想要了解更详细的朋友可以去阿Boon部落格：http://bblifediary.blogspot.com/2014/01/zhulianzhulian-ca.html

 

第二 估值过高

对于估值，我最喜欢看的是PE。Zhulian在出事前一天的PE是15.3（用最近4Quarters）。看PE最大的重点就是不可以单单看自己的PE，要拿来作比较。

在消费股方面，以如此市值计算，其实Zhulian算低了。（普通介于18-20平均）

在MLM方面，

AMWAY PE=18.6 （市值RM1972m）

HAIO PE=12.6 （市值RM507m）

Zhulian PE=15.3（市值RM2114m）（出事前）

Zhulian PE=13.04 （市值RM1577m） （出事后）

 

以PE来讲，Zhulian的估值还不算高（由于是珠宝行业，PE普遍会较低）可参考Poh Kong，Degem。那么就可能是第三个原因

 

第三泰国暴乱事件

首先，我们先看看Zhulian在泰国的市场有多大，根据2012年年报的显示，泰国果然是Zhulian的最大市场。

 

接着看最近一期的Quarter Report，我们会发现营业额大量减少，这个和泰国暴乱事件不谋而合。这份季报还有一个重点在于，尽管营业额大量减少，但是Operating Profit Margin还是得以维持，证明Zhulian的fixed cost很低，而且经营模式已经成熟。

 

 

应不应该买入Zhulian？

就上述的判断，Zhulian这次的危机来源，很可能主要是因为泰国暴乱导致营业额的减少，并不是公司本身的问题。泰国暴乱应该是属于暂时性事件，过后Zhulian的业绩应该可以恢复以往的水准。但是不要忘记季报是显示前三个月的业绩（去年9月-11月），下一份季报是显示12月至2月。

 

看法：

我觉得关键在于下一份季报和投资者的表现。如果下一季业绩维持或更差，但是股价没什么跌，就证明大家已经消化这个消息了，可以开始少量买进。如果下一个业绩进步，证明危机已过，可以大量买进。（如果大盘崩溃就例外）

 

注：本身并没有长时间关注Zhulian的发展，所以只是针对这次事件而评论。

http://moonitez89.blogspot.com/2014/01/zhulian.html

CMMT受广场翻新提振

（吉隆坡25日讯）嘉德大马房地产信托（CMMT，5180，主板房产信托股）日前公布的2013财政年（截至12月31日止）业绩符合市场预期。展望未 来，分析员认为，较高的电费和门牌费预料不会冲击嘉德大马房地产信托，并预计东海岸广场（East Coast Mall）的翻新工作，可提振该房产信托的盈利。因此，部份分析员调高其投资评级。

嘉德大马房地产信托2013财政年末季净利为4185万令吉，较前年同期的4864万令吉，下跌13.98%；营业额则为7880万令吉，比较前年同期的7378万令吉，增加6.80%。

全年而言，该公司净利从前年同期的2亿5046万令吉，下滑8.3%至2亿2966万令吉；营业额则从前年同期的2亿8921万令吉，增加5.5%至3亿零510万令吉。

拉昔胡申研究分析员指出，嘉德大马房地产信托2013财政年营业额取得成长，主要是因为正面的租金调涨。

金河广场租金下跌

「整体租金调涨7.5%，是健康的水平，尽管金河广场（Sungai Wang Plaza）的租金调整跌3.7%。不过，整体出租率持稳在99%。」

金河广场租金按年下跌3.7%，主要是受到正在进行的捷运工程影响。

此外，达证券分析员表示，嘉德大马房地产信托去年的核心净利符合预测。该房产信托在末季派发每股2.24仙股息，将全年股息派发推高至8.85仙，这相等于约6.4%的周息率。其全年的股息派发也符合达证券预测的8.9仙。

他透露，根据嘉德大马房地产信托管理层，金河广场较高的电费和门牌费，预计将导致年度营运开销额外增加400万令吉。

「因此，我们将2014和2015财政年的盈利赚幅预测，从原本的67-68%，下修至约66%。同时，也将该两个财政年的净利预测各调低1%。」

不过，拉昔胡申研究分析员则认为，额外400万令吉的营运开销，对嘉德大马房地产信托的冲击不大，因为占整体营业额不到2%的比重。

展望前景，分析员认为，嘉德大马房地产信托将受惠于健康的租金调整以及东海岸广场的翻新工程。

嘉德大马房地产信托将在今年投入8000万令吉作为资本开销，主要是加快完成东海岸广场的翻新工程，预测在工程完成後，此广场每年可提供投8%的投资回酬（ROI）。此外，该房产信托也维持其每单位股息成长4至5%的目标。

达证券分析员表示，虽然金河广场的表现将继续受到捷运工程的影响，不过旗下另3项广场的表现将抵销该负面影响。而且，一旦捷运工程结束，预料金河广场长期表现将从中受惠。

他补充，该房产的盈利跌幅有限，这是基于健康的租金调整；低利息环境丶73%的贷款是固定利率，所以面临的升息潜在风险不大。

因此，该分析员维持该股「守住」投资评级，及1.56令吉目标价格。

拉昔胡申研究及MIDF研究则上调该股投资评级。

负面消息已反映

拉昔胡申研究相信，该公司的负面消息已反映在股价上，并相信东海岸广场的翻新工作将会提振其盈利。

因此，将投资评级从「卖出」上调至「中和」，目标价也调高至1.42令吉。

MIDF研究分析员表示，虽然该公司受到金河广场趋软的表现影响，但该公司仍然交出强稳的业绩表现，所以他将该信托的投资评级调高至「买进」，目标价为1.66令吉。

马胶价可能下滑

吉隆坡26日讯）一交易商称，由于世界最大树胶消费国的需求额减少，因此预料本周的大马胶价走势会向下滑跌。
她告马新社，中国投资者在农历新年假期即将来临之际已开始度假，有关假期会在本周到来。
她称，在农历新年假期过后，树胶的交易料会回复活跃。
她续称：“此间胶价会跟着东京商品交易所与上海期货交易所的走势移动。”
在刚结束的一周交易中，此间胶价趋软亦是由于中国最大树胶入口国的需求额减少所造成。
在上周五交易结束时，大马树胶局的官方现货价SMR20标准胶，每公斤落11.50仙至702.50仙，而散装乳胶价每公斤起4.5仙报482.50仙。
至于非官方SMR20标准胶闭市时，每公斤落19仙至695.50仙，而散装乳胶价每公斤降1仙挂480.50仙。

雪州政府重启水供计划 勇达集团受益匪浅

随着雪兰莪和联邦政府最终对冷岳2水供处理厂达成协议，将为水供制造商带来利好的冲击因素。透过上述计划的有利可图合约，它们将准备增加产能。
没有意外地，投资者已经开始抢购一些公司的股票，尤其是勇达集团有限公司（ENGTEX，5056，贸易服务组）和友联工业控股有限公司（YLI，7014，工业产品组）。
自1月9日当雪兰莪州务大臣丹斯里卡立透露，他已通知布城，指该州政府有意合作发展冷岳2后，勇达集团和友联工业控股股价即飙高，至1月15日止分别挺升7.02%和12.68%。
勇达集团和友联工业控股‘双垄断’了国内球墨铁管制造。在大直径低碳钢管领域，勇达集团与另一家水供基建服务供应商JAKS资源有限公司（JAKS，4723，建筑组）共享市场。
而中小直径低碳钢管市场则相当具挑战性，拥有超过18名业者，包括勇达集团、友联工业控股和JAKS资源等。
冷岳2工厂的建造将提高大直径软管（以从水坝转移水供），及中小直径球墨铁管（供分配至家居）的需求。
勇达集团和友联工业控股曾于2007年掀起购潮，当时雪兰莪水供有限公司（Syabas）宣布一项计划，拨出7亿令吉资本开销推动其于该州的水供替换计划。
不过，雪兰莪新上任民联政府于2008年冻结了雪兰莪水供的计划，导致该州的水供基建提升计划被搁置。
考虑之前的事件和尽管冷岳2获得放行，市场仍然忧虑这项最新发展可能是勇达集团和友联工业控股的另一个‘假象’。
据一家水供制造商执行员披露，行业现在的乐观情绪是因为布城和雪兰莪正积极行动，迎合水供需求的增长压力。
他说：“随着政治僵持解决，我们认为冷岳2将成为一个序幕，接着展开全州的水管替换计划。制造商将准备就绪增加产能，以迎合上述需求。”
行业观察家都关注雪兰莪的发展，该执行员称，该州的球墨铁管领域具成长空间。
“较小直径的球墨铁管在耐久力、预期寿命和安装简易度方面，都容易打败低碳钢管。”
“除了现有水管替换，雪兰莪也有多项新产业计划需要连接。”
雪兰莪水供基建业的僵局过去数年严重冲击勇达集团和联友工业控股的财政。两造不只面对停滞需求，同时也包括浮动钢铁价格的影响。
勇达集团处理球墨铁管和低碳钢管的建造部门，于截至2012年12月31止财政年度的税前盈利，从前一年的2080万令吉退至1500万令吉。不过，该公司过去5个财政年仍然交出不俗的盈利。
勇达集团自称其产品拥有庞大的全国分销网络，和超过300名企业客户。而且，它也稳定进军产业发展，以多元化其收入来源。
比较之下，友联工业控股过去数年表现则较逊色。这家槟城公司过去5个财政年度里，3度出现亏损，包括2011财政年特殊净亏损4030万令吉。
基于其最新闭市价78.5仙，该股是以2013财政年每股净资产值1.52令吉的近50%折价水平交易。
友联工业控股也在雪兰莪拥有一些联系。它持有Laksana Wibawa私人有限公司的51%股权，后者传与商峰控股有限公司（PUNCAK，6807，基建公司组）控制股东丹斯里罗查利有关系。
Laksana Wibawa在2005年受委为该州低碳钢铁管和球墨铁管独家供应商时，成为市场的焦点。友联工业控股在2009年买下该公司的控制权。
但现在，随着联邦政府决定引用2006年水供服务业法令第114节条文，罗查利可能最终放弃其于水供领域的持股。
一些人士表示，这将容许其他水管制造商在投标新工程时公平竞争，尤其是冷岳2和该州早该实行的水管替换计划。

联昌投资研究行在早前的报告中指出，在联邦政府插手后，相关冷岳2的主要水供工程最终将可重启。
“这项消息将减轻水供统一的进一步延宕，以及展开冷岳2水供处理厂的建造。大直径水管业者如勇达集团，将是其中最大受惠者。”

券商买进心头好．油棕地日趋成熟 常成夹板种植业务成亮点

商：大马投资研究 合理价：2.85令吉
　常成夹板（JTIASA，4383，主要板工业）种植业务处于转折点，我们预计主要种植成熟地区在2016年前可超越50%，有助支撑油棕树鲜果串（FFB）产量增长。
　本财年油棕树鲜果串产量料增长30%达86万6000吨，产量在2015财年可突破100万吨，2016财年额外增长10%。
　该公司在种植园内建设多两间棕榈油厂，可帮助减少运输成本达40%；目前运输成本是每公吨45令吉至50令吉。
　我们也预测木材出口价格，包括三夹板和木排将分别维持每立方米200美元（约670令吉）和500美元（约1674令吉）之间。
　以目前交易价计算，常成夹板旗下种植土地的余价（residual value）为4万令吉（不包括木材），相比对手怡保工程种植（IJMPLNT，2216，主要板种植），常成夹板土地的余价是折价25%。
　若常成夹板股价涨至2.85令吉，旗下种植土地的余价将是4万9000令吉，虽然还是折价8%，但可算是公平价格。
　随著目前盈利计算，常成夹板本财年本益比（PE）为16倍，2015财年本益比则为13倍。
　若以合理价计算，2014和2015财年本益比将分别增长至20倍和17倍。
　随著营运表现走强，我们相信常成夹板业务有潜在发展空间，调高投资评级从“守住”至“买入”，同时也调涨合理价。
　常成夹板周五（24日）闭市收在2.26令吉，扬3仙，成交量录得93万6500股。

CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust - Phase 1 of East Coast Mall AEI complete

Target RM1.47 (Stock Rating: HOLD)

CMMT's FY13 core net profit of RM148.5m was in line with our estimate but below consensus, accounting for 99% of our but only 90% of consensus numbers. We maintain our Hold call on the stock with an unchanged DDM-based target price of RM1.47. We gather from the results conference call that the ongoing MRT construction works will continue to affect shopper traffic at Sg. Wang until 2017, although we believe that the completion of the AEI for the East Coast Mall will provide a buffer for its NPI. For exposure to Malaysian REITs, we suggest investors switch to Axis REIT.

Phase 1 of the East Coast Mall's AEI is completed 

CMMT's first phase of the AEI for its East Coast Mall with a total capex of RM80m over two years has been completed. The first phase involved the reconfiguration of 26k sq ft of existing area, and a conversion of 82 car park lots into retail space that has a total area of approximately 24k sq ft. The first phase also involved the creation of 8k sq ft of additional retail space after CMMT extended the rear part of the mall from the ground floor to level 3. The AEI for the mall is expected to be fully completed by 2H2014 as CMMT is currently doing more work to further enhance the mall. 

Sg. Wang shopper traffic decline 

For 4Q13, CMMT's shopper traffic was rather flattish, declining by 0.1% yoy, while its vehicular traffic declined by 1.8% yoy. The decline in shopper traffic for CMMT's portfolio was mainly due to Sg. Wang, which continues to be plagued by the MRT construction works around the mall. Management does not expect shopper traffic to recover until the MRT construction works are completed, which is expected to be in 2017. 

Higher utilities cost and assessment rates 

CMMT expects the higher electricity and DBKL assessment rates to result in approximately RM3m-4m of additional costs. This is after taking into account the costs that it will pass on to its tenants. The RM3m-4m impact accounts for approximately 1% of its revenues; thus CMMT is not highly concerned about the higher costs.

斤经济较：利率走高又如何？ - 夜月

以下是一则晚间新闻的标题

“央行：抑制通膨与家庭债务 将调高利率50基点”

点进去才发现，

原来只是汇丰银行的预测= =

50基点代表什么？

代表0.5%（这么少）

那么为什么提高利率可以抑制通膨和家庭债券呢？

利率不是富人的游戏罢了吗？

关平民百姓什么事？

有关投资者什么事？

 

首先，我们要先明白这里的利率是代表什么？

是代表存款利率、借贷利率、隔夜利率、债券利率。。。?@@

好多好多，到底是哪一个呢？

其实到底哪一个一点也不重要，

因为一个起个个起。（这份报道的利率是指隔夜利率，因为只有它目前=3%）

怎么说呢？

试想想，如果储蓄利息起了，

银行要给更多钱，

那么它自然会增加借贷的利息。

 

要是债券利息起了，

更多人会跑去买债券，

银行为了吸引大家存款，

自然会起存款利息。

如果借贷利息起了，

银行需要更多钱借给人，

自然会起储蓄利息。

所以严格上来讲，

你不需要知道哪一个利率起，

你只需要知道利率是起还是跌。

 

利率上涨会导致两个结果，

更多人存款和更少人借款。

这两个结果都会减少流动在外的钱，

因为钱都被存在银行里了，

所以也被称为紧缩政策。

在外面的钱少了，

钱就变成更有价值，

所以通膨就会降低。

利息上涨了，

就导致更少人借钱，

家债也会减少。

 

是不是很简单啊。