现金储备增长40% 东益电子或派特别股息

（吉隆坡30日讯）由于2013财政年首9个月业绩表现符合预期，加上现金储备按年增40%至1亿4870万令吉，因此市场预计东益电子有限公司（GTRONIC，7022，科技组）或会派发特别股息。
MIDF证券研究行分析师指出，东益电子在截至2013财政年第3季止，其净利为1亿4870万令吉，相等于每股53.8仙，料会派发新一轮特别股息。
尽管该股价格频频走高，但5%以上周息率仍具吸引力。
不过东益电子今日股价走跌，为十大下跌股之一，收市报3.00令吉跌14仙，股票成交量达400万2300股。
艾芬投资研究行分析师认为，东益电子在智能手机和平板电脑市场迅速成长下，具有良好发挥的机会。
该公司呈现盈利持稳表现，尽管持续争取新机会作投资，但管理层不忘奖励投资者，在2013财政年每股派息17仙。
假设东益电子在2014财政年盈利成长29%，具派息率85%，料每股股息将增至19.8仙，或周息率6.3%。
东益电子在2013财政年首9个月税前盈利为4750万令吉，同时期税务与摊销前盈利（EBIT）赚幅从17.6%增至18.8%；主要贡献包括客户加载量提升、产量获得改善，以及较好成本控制。
分析师普遍维持东益电子“买进”评级，其中MIDF证券研究给予该股合理价3.50令吉。

斤经济较：你也可以预测经济走向 - 夜月

很多人会问现在的经济状况如何？尽管他们都不懂怎样代表经济好，怎样才代表经济不好。普遍来说经济好的时候，国民的生产力(GDP)会提高、失业率会下降、公司越开越多等等。然而，又有人说这些或许无法代表真正的经济状况。到底怎样才能知道过去、现在和未来的经济状况呢？其实有很多经济指标(Economic Indicator)是可以用来预测经济的。

 

基本上，经济指标分成三大类：

领先经济指标(Leading Economic Indicator)

同期经济指标(Coincident Economic Indicator)

落后经济指标(Lagging Economic Indicator)

 

领先经济指标

领先经济指标是用来预测未来的经济走势，尤其是经济的转换期（从好变坏或者从坏变好）。这些指标会在经济真正转变之前就产生变化，因而可以用来预测经济。

 

1 每星期工作平均时间（制造业）

公司在产品销售不好的时候，不会先裁员，因为再请回新员工需要花费更多的精力和时间。所以要降低生产量时，公司首先会减少工人的工作时间包括取消加班等 等。所以每星期工作平均时间降低，代表着未来的经济可能会变坏。相反地也一样。当产品需求增加，公司不会立刻请人，反而会让在职员工加班，在真正经济好转 确认后才会真正请人。

 

2 货币政策

当经济不好时，中央银行会采取货币宽松政策包括：降低贷款利率、减少储备金等等来刺激消费

。所以当央行采取货币宽松政策时，我们一般会觉得未来的经济会慢慢好转。

 

3  短期债券和长期债券的利率相差值

一般上，长期债券的利率会大于短期债券，因为牺牲了资金的流动性。当大众对未来的经济看坏时，大众会预测未来的短期利率会降低，所以大家都会抢着购买长期债券导致长期债券的利率下降。

 

4 股市

股市是经济的晴雨表。因为投资者比较关注公司每期的获利能力。当公司的获利能力降低时，股价很快就会下降，尽管公司还没有开始裁员或减少生产量。

 

 

同期经济指标

同期经济指标是用来确认现在的经济状况

 

1 员工薪水

当经济真正好转后，公司赚到钱，才会提高员工的薪水。所以当薪水提高了，就可以证明现在经济好转。

 

2 工业生产率

工业产品比如：汽车、机器等等并不是必需品，而是非常依赖经济走势。经济好时，大众有钱了才会购买新汽车，公厂才会购买新机器。

 

 

落后经济指标

落后经济指标一般用来确认过去的经济状况是否和预期的一样。

 

1 失业率

公司会在确定经济好转后，才会请新人。所以失业率降低可以很好的确认经济已经好转了。

 

2 家庭借贷率

大众一般在很有信心的时候，才会大笔借贷，而这时通常经济已经好转一段时间。

 

总结：每个经济指标其实无法独立准确的预测经济的走势，所以我们需要同时观看多个经济指标，以便可以更准确的掌握经济走势。

推出更多新计划 PLENITUDE力扩房产版图

（吉隆坡31日讯）PLENITUDE（PLENITU，5075，主要板产业）计划在2014财年，推出新房产计划扩大房产业务版图。
　PLENITUD执行主席蔡爱施透过文告指出，旗下多家子公司将陆续推出多项房产计划，公司预计核心房产发展业务将持续稳健成长。
　“我们乐观看待，预计全球与区域经济疲软，将是2014财年的挑战。”
　PLENITUD上财年截至6月底全年业绩获得不错成绩，营业额按年增长1.5%，报2亿900万令吉税；净利报7779万令吉，按年增7.5%，公司每股派发6仙股息。该公司自2003年上市以来，每年皆有派发股息。
　蔡爱施指出，子公司Plenitude Tebrau私人有限公司房产9D、9E和9F阶段，房产销量有不错的改善。
　“在上财年截至6月底全年业绩鼓舞下，我们将继续保持谨慎态度，有效管理成本，提高股东的收益，和维持健康的资产损益表。”
　PLENITUDE子公司Plenitude Permai私人有限公司今年推介6A阶段，当中共有105个单位的排屋，其中60个单位为双层排屋，45个单位是三层排屋，发展总值达1亿1700万令吉，吸纳率约为30%，这不包括一间展示单位。
　该展示单位预计将在明年上半年完成，销量预计将积极贡献2014财年业绩表现

Is Medini Iskandar now gold? - kinibiz

By doubling the minimum property purchase price for foreigners to RM1 million last week, has prime minister Najib Abdul Razak inadvertently turned Medini Iskandar into investors’ ‘gold’?

While the minimum price limit applies to the whole country, Medini has been the exemption — foreigners can purchase any property in the 2,230-acre district without any price restrictions.

Pretam Singh Darshan Singh

In his Budget 2014 speech, the prime minister did not mention any changes to the exemption in Medini — by all appearances, the exemption seems to remain in place even as Budget 2014 unveiled a number of cooling measures for the property industry.

“I don’t think (the raised minimum price limit) will be applicable to Medini,” said property lawyer Pretam Singh Darshan Singh when contacted by KiniBiz.

The implication now is that with the entry bar raised everywhere else in the country, Medini has become a stronger magnet for foreign property investors looking for properties priced below RM1 million.

“Medini is foreigners’ only chance to buy properties below RM1 million,” said Danny Goh, executive director of MCT Consortium which has a mixed development project in Medini.

Ready, set, rush?

According to Goh, a majority of properties in Medini at the moment are priced below RM1 million.

“For our D’Pristine mixed development, our buyers are about 50:50 between locals and foreigners,” said Goh. “Our prices are about RM700,000 per Small Office Flexible Office (SoFo) unit.”

Prices in Medini has been quite stable, said valuer Sr Loo Kung Hoe of Rahim & Co (Johor), with prices varying between RM700 and RM1,000 per sq ft (psf). Some developments are already seeing prices going beyond the RM1,000 psf mark, added Loo.

But with Medini spared the property cooling measures in Budget 2014, is a ‘gold rush’ by foreign investors looming?

“I think so, yes,” said Goh flatly.

However, the actual overall impact may not be significant, said Brian Koh, executive director of property consultancy DTZ Nawawi Tie Leung.

“Maybe some of the smaller units would be impacted because they are usually priced below RM1 million, but the bigger ones not so much (affected),” said Koh to KiniBiz via phone.

“If foreigners want to buy, they’ll continue to buy (regardless),” added Koh, pointing out that investment in Iskandar has been driven by other factors.

One possibility however is that developers may start building bigger units in order to price their properties higher, said Koh.

RPGT exemption until 2020

Loo Kung Hoe

One way or another, valuer Loo feels Medini’s property prices may soon see its stability ending, especially since the lack of price controls for foreigners is on top of an exemption from real property gains tax (RPGT) under certain conditions.

“From the way I look at it, since (Medini) was not affected by Budget 2014, I think prices may start shooting up,” said Loo to KiniBiz. “Medini is now king.”

In his Budget 2014 speech last week, prime minister Najib Abdul Razak also did not touch on Medini’s RPGT exemption for certain types of purchasers. The implication is that the exemption currently in place would remain.

According to information from the Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA) website, the Medini Incentive Support Package provides among others an exemption to foreign knowledge workers (FKW) from real property gains tax (RPGT) for disposal of land and property until 2015 and 2020 respectively.

However, to qualify for the RPGT exemption the FKWs must be a non-Malaysian citizen working with either an IDR-status company, an approved developer, an approved development manager or an approved node project development company.

Additionally, the FKW must reside in Iskandar Malaysia as well as possessing required education qualifications and professional experience in select categories.

IRDA is a statutory body established under the Iskandar Regional Development Authority Act 2007 (IRDA Act) to oversee the development of the Iskandar Malaysia region in terms of policies and promotions, among other roles.

Under the IRDA Act, section 5(e) states that IRDA’s function among others will be “to recommend to the relevant Government Entities incentives in relation to taxes, customs and excise duties and other fiscal incentives applicable to investors in the Iskandar Development Region”.

How the minimum price exemption works

The exemption for foreigners in Medini from the minimum purchase price limit works via a well-known practice in other countries including Australia and Canada, although Medini perhaps represents its first implementation in Malaysia.

Instead of purchasing land directly in Medini, foreigners would instead be buying leases from appointed master concessionaire lease developers (MCLD) or subsequent layer investors (SLI) — each transaction done by the registered lessee would not affect the freehold status of the land.

In such an arrangement, the freehold ownership effectively remains with a local party as the foreign purchaser’s ownership is akin to a long-term tenancy.

Property lawyer Pretam Singh previously wrote that the lease period acquired by the foreign purchasers would be 99 years with an option for an additional 30 years in certain cases.

The body that appoints MCLDs and SLIs for Medini is Iskandar Investment Berhad (IIB) and at the end of the lease period for a Medini property, ownership would revert back to IIB.

At present there are more than 20 MCLDs in Medini Iskandar, said Haslinda Othman, senior vice president of Development, Medini Iskandar Malaysia Sdn Bhd — which is a member of Iskandar Investment Group — when contacted by KiniBiz.

However, as Malaysian law does not cater to the sale of leases at present, developers with projects in Medini need to apply for an exemption from the housing ministry to allow for such sales of leases.

The housing ministry’s exemption would allow developers to deviate from Schedules H and G of the Housing Development (Control and Licensing) Regulations 1989, which are the mandatory standard agreement between purchasers and developers in Malaysia.

A greenfield development spanning 2,230 acres, Medini is designed to become the central business district of Iskandar Malaysia with six zones — A to F — which makes up four development clusters: Medini North (Zone A), Medini Business (Zone B), Medini Central (Zones C, D and E) and Medini South (Zone F).

Began in 2007, Medini’s 20-year development plan is expected to see a gross development value (GDV) of more than RM6.8 billion with its total area translating to 9.6 million square feet of land and a total gross floor area of nearly 18.8 million square feet. Among the landmark developments in Medini is the Pinewood Iskandar Malaysia Studios boasting over 100,000 square feet in film stages as well as Asia’s first Legoland — the Legoland Malaysia theme park.

 

第三季净利持平 大马机场营业额涨三成

(吉隆坡31日讯)认列机场建筑收入，导致大马机场（Airport，5014，主板贸服股）2013财政年第3季(截至9月30日止)营业额上涨约3成，但净利却持平。

大马机场第3季营业额达到9亿7272万令吉，比去年同期的7亿5427万令吉增长28.96%，净利则为1亿1278万令吉，比去年同期的1亿1301万令吉稍微低0.20%。

今年首9个月而言，大马机场的营业额成长34.16%，从去年同期的22亿1979万令吉，增至29亿7810万令吉。首9个月的净利则从3亿1643万令吉，成长7.63%，至3亿4059万令吉。

大 马机场在首3季的机场营运营业额，整体上取得成长，其中机场服务收入成长14.56%，至13亿6072万令吉；机场零售业务的收入则成长12.60%， 至4亿3909万令吉；另外，机场建筑收入大幅成长85.12%，至11亿9866万令吉。建筑收入主要是来自第2国际机场的建筑工程，以及槟城国际机场 的扩充计划。

扣除这建筑收入，该公司在第3季及首9个月的机场业务营业额，分别成长16.9%或8430万令吉，及14.7%或2亿1560万令吉。

第3季的非机场业务营业额下滑14.9%或560万令吉，首9个月则跌8.2%或740万令吉。

大马机场股价今日跌9仙，至8.41令吉，成交量为120万1000股。

令吉走贬拖累 国能末季净利暴跌80%

（吉隆坡31日讯）由于令吉兑美元和日圆急跌6.4%和9.3%，国家能源（TENAGA，5347，主板贸服股）2013财政年第四季净利按年暴跌79.52%，至2.19亿令吉，但全年净利仍微涨4.63%，至46.14亿令吉。

国家能源今天公布2013财政年第四季暨全年（截至8月31日止）业绩，其末季营业额从93亿8340万令吉按年上升1.79%，至95亿零220万令吉；但净利从10亿6100万令吉猛挫79.52%，至2亿1940万令吉。

在全年业绩方面，营业额从358亿4840万令吉按年扬升3.58%，至371亿3070万令吉；净利亦从44亿1050万令吉上涨4.62%，至46亿1420万令吉。

派15仙股息

董事局建议派发每股15仙股息，与2012财政年同期持平，而全年股息是每股25仙。

国 家能源首席执行员拿督斯里阿兹曼在记者会上强调两点。第一，国家能源2013财政年末季的整体业绩表现保持稳定，主要是煤炭平均价是每公吨80.80美 元，和第三季的每公吨84.4美元相去不远。第二，令吉兑美元和日圆分别下挫6.4%和9.3%，导致末季的净利大跌至2.19亿令吉。

另一方面，阿兹曼表示，政府迄今还未宣布何时批准燃油成本转嫁机制，国家能源只能继续静候佳音。虽然电费何时调涨仍是未知数，但他看好国内电力需求将继续支撑该集团的营业额增长。

与此同时，国家能源主席丹斯里廖莫宜也说，明年的国内电力需求成长受看好。「实际上，2013财政年的电力需求增长只是略低於2012财政年。大马半岛的电力需求成长是3.8%，低於2012财政年的4.3%。

廖莫宜补充，国内电力需求的起落向来与国内生产总值（GDP）表现相符。根据国家银行预测，今年的GDP增长将从去年的5.6%放缓至4.5%到5.0%。

另 外，廖莫宜称，国家能源目前的4项发电厂项目皆如期进行，第4单位曼绒（Janamanjung）1000兆瓦发电厂已完成64%工程；乌鲁登嘉楼 （Hulu Terengganu）水力发电厂已完成45%工程；乌鲁日莱（UluJelai）发电厂已完成39%工程；以及北赖（Prai）发电厂已完成18%工 程。

20万捐泄洪受害者

当被询及国家能源如何应对金马仑冷力水坝泄洪事件时，阿兹曼回应说，国家能源是根据标准作业程序（SOP）来进行排洪工作，因此无须负上法律责任及作出赔偿，但国能将会拨出20万令吉捐给泄洪事件的受害者。

今年10月23日，国家能源位於彭亨金马仑的冷力水坝排洪时，洪水淹没巴登谷住宅区导致多人失踪及死亡。

从财算措施中受惠 莫实得控股展望佳

（吉隆坡28日讯）莫实得控股（Bstead，2771，种植组）冀望可从上周五所宣布的2014年财政预算案下所提及的30亿令吉海事发展基金低息贷款（soft loan）发配计划下受惠。
莫实得控股集团董事经理丹斯里罗丁沃卡马鲁丁说：“我们（通过莫实得重工业（BHIC，8133，工业产品组））涉足造船领域，因此我们冀可从海事发展基金低息贷款的发配计划下分一杯羹。”
他在资本投资（ICap，5108，关闭式基金）所举办的2013年投资人日（Investor Day）上作出有关该公司的汇报活动后向媒体透露，该公司将可因财政预算案下将酒店的新兴地位（Pioneer Status）额外延长3年至2016年12月的建议下受惠。

旗下产业业务拥有皇家朱兰（Royale Chulan）、皇家遮拉汀（Royale Cherating）和皇家宾当（Royale Bintang）酒店的莫实得控股料可从上述情况下受惠，因该公司放眼展开更多的酒店发展活动。
罗丁也提到，外国购屋者的产业盈利税（Real Property Gains Tax，RPGT）以及房屋购买价格上限的调高活动，意味着该领域在未来将出现更可持续性的成长预期。

针对将旗下种植领域上市的企业计划方面，罗丁表示一旦莫实得产业信托（BsdREIT，5124，产业信托组）的私有化计划完成，前者放眼将其种植业务于明年次季进行上市。
他说：“我们计划将莫实得产业信托所拥有的园地注入旗下种植业务，随后将后者进行上市。”他也指出，该公司的种植业务预料可在完成上市活动后，为其带来至少25%至30%的贡献。
他说：“我们放眼将本身的种植园地进行拓展，但目前局限于本地范围。”

与三井合作 双威料受惠

（吉隆坡29日讯）双威（SUNWAY，5211，主板产业股）与日本三井不动产（Mitsui Fudosan）达成协议，联营双威South Quay发展计划。

对于能够与日本主要发展商之一建立夥伴关系，分析员看好双威能够藉此受益于三井不动产广大的客户群以及日本市场，因此对上述消息保持正面态度。

双 威的60%权益子公司--双威South Quay私人有限公司（SSQ），与三井不动产旗下的SEA Investment Four私人有限公司（SEAI4），是以67对33的股权比例，通过Prosper Revenue私人有限公司展开这项名为双威Geo Residences的发展计划。

该项目占地2万7520平方尺丶含盖两栋共472个单位的公寓大楼，总发展价值（GDV）料达3亿1900万令吉。

达证券分析员看好双威能够充分利用三井不动产约30万的日本客户群，以向他们推介双威SouthQuay发展计划。

有鉴于大马稳定的政治状况和强健的经济成长，分析员称，有愈来愈多多的日本民众将大马视为第二家园。根据数据显示，日本是「我的第2家园」（MM2H）计划中最高参与度的国家之一。此外，上述联营计划也预料为双威的多项新推介项目，带来更快的获利。

丰隆研究分析员表示，该联营公司在上周非正式推介首栋公寓大楼后，目前已取得70%的预定。分析员对这积极的策略表示欢迎，尤其是在于能够加快该集团的发展周期。

「展望未来，上述的合作，或也会为双威依斯干达和其它发展项目，吸引更多的海外投资者。」

考虑到双威依斯干达发展计划的规模甚大，覆盖1770英亩的土地以及300亿令吉的发展价值，拉昔胡申研究分析员不排除双威会再次拉拢三井不动产，成为该计划的交叉销售夥伴。

直至2013财政上半年为止，双威已锁定4亿9100万令吉的新产业销售，占据该集团全年11亿令吉销售目标的44.6%。同时，该集团截至上半年止的未入账产业销售也高达18亿令吉，为该集团2012财政年产业营业额的两倍。

维持「买进」评级

虽 然产业领域或面临紧缩举措及合约流放缓，惟丰隆研究仍看好该集团经重组后的资本负债表与庞大的订单量，将可扶持其盈利增长，因此维持对该股「买进」的投资 评级。国内另3家证券行也重申对该股的「买进」评级，马银行投行则保持其「守住」评级。市场给予该股的目标价格，则介于3.73令吉至2.96令吉。

无论如何，双威本周首两个交易日仍受到预算案的打房措施影响，该股今日下跌6仙，闭市收在2.82令吉，成交量为881万股。盈利前景稳定迪联目标价调高

双威房产信托 首季净利成长6.5%

吉隆坡29日讯）双威房地产投资信托（SUNREIT，5176，主板房产信托股）2014财政年首季净利为5540万令吉，较於去年的5200万 9000令吉，增加6.52%；营业额则为1亿零17万6000令吉，较於去年的9977万2000令吉，上涨0.41%。

另外，该公司也建议派发2仙的第一次利息，其中0.35仙为免税利息，并在11月12日除权。

数码网络升级推高盈利

（吉隆坡29日讯）数码网络（DIGI，6947，主板基建股）完成历时2年的网络设施升级行动，来季料再无巨额折旧项目需入账，且网络素质改善也推高其盈利前景，促使多位分析员上调该股目标价格。

数 码网络是在周一向大马交易所呈报2013财政年第三季（截至9月30日止）业绩表现时，提及该公司也将当季完成名为「网络现代化」的网络设施升级行动，而 其3G覆盖率也扩大至76.1%。此亮点引起市场分析员的注意，并相信这将让该公司从2011年就开始每季必须入账的巨额折旧项目和若干成本，终止于来 季。账面而言，这将为该公司的营运释放更多盈利。

随着数码网络的3G覆盖率扩大，并展望在今年杪进一步推高至80%，分析员相信，这也将有望让该公司一洗通讯素质不佳的形象，争取到更多的用户。

在第三季，该公司的净新增用户达27万9000人，其中预付和後付新用户分别26万9000人和1万人；预付和後付用户的每名用户平均收益（ARPU）则各跌1令吉，至41令吉和82令吉。

大 部份分析员维持该股的「守住」或「买进」评级，但共有4名分析员上调其目标价格，包括丰隆研究（4.79令吉上调至4.94令吉）丶马银行金英投行 （4.85令吉上调至4.95令吉）丶安联研究（4.90令吉上调至5.51令吉），以及MIDF研究（4.80令吉上调至6.23令吉，评级从「中和」 上调至「买进」）。

基于数码网络的高估值特质，且其首9个月为11亿5736万令吉的净利，只达市场平均全年预期的70%比重，因此也有2名分析员稍微下调该股目标价格，即黄氏星展唯高达研究（4.95令吉下调至4.90令吉）和大马研究（5.70令吉下调至5.65令吉）。

另有4名分析员维持该股的目标价格，全场国内10家证券行的平均价格为5.155令吉；共有5名分析员给予「买进」评级，4名分析员建议守住，以及1名分析员喊卖。

数码网络周二大热走高，上涨13仙或2.64%，报5.06令吉，成交量达2753万1500股，为全场第14大上升股和第8大热门股。

另一方面，分析员屏息以待的另一利好因素为消费税（GST），因数码网络届时料将可把6%预付通讯服务税，转嫁予消费者。即便把消费税冲击消费情绪的因素纳入考量，

这也将令向来强于预付用户市场的该公司，成为同行中的最大受惠者。

安联研究分析员预测，这将能把该公司2015年的盈利推高8.5%至11%左右。

此外，数码网络在设法提高用户群的智能手机渗透率方面，也交出不俗进展，有助於提升数据和互联网使用量。第三季，该公司共卖出36万7000台智能移动设备，比次季的销售成绩高出逾3倍。

不过，数码网络在第三季的息税前赚幅（EBITDA margin）只保持在45.1%，因智能手机津贴增加，同时令吉汇率滑跌也侵蚀国际通话（IDD）业务的赚幅。

因此，展望末季，该公司管理层也把息税前赚幅和现金流赚幅的原定目标，各下调1个百分点，至45%和32%。

在数码网络的分析员汇报会中，管理层表示，对设立商业信托（business trust）的研究仍在进行中，这涉及营运丶税务丶监管者等多方。有别于第二季的汇报会，管理层这次不再重申年杪完成相关研究的目标，肯纳格研究分析员认为，今年内或无法成事。

无论如何，数码网络设立商业信托的可能性，仍然普遍被分析员列为该股未来的重大激励因素。

盈利前景稳定 迪联目标价调高

吉隆坡29日讯）迪联集团（DELEUM，5132，主板贸服股）获得国油公司（Petronas）颁发燃气涡轮机长期维修合约，市场分析员认为，这虽不足以显着提升该公司的赚头，但却保障其盈利前景稳定性，值得更高的股价。

由于上述为期7年的合约属更新性质，安联研究分析员维持迪联集团的盈利前景，但把该股的目标价格，从3.94令吉上调至5.12令吉，涨幅高达29.9%。

这是因为，分析员把此前给予该股的10倍预测本益比（PE）估值上调至13倍，与小型油气股上涨周期的平均估值同等水平。

获国油长期维修合约

此外，随着迪联集团拿到这项保障其一大部分盈利的长期合约，分析员认为，该股的盈利前景强稳，每股盈利（EPS）的3年复合成长率（CAGR）高达12%，并预料2013和2014财政年（12月31日结账）的周息率（DY）分别达4%和4.8%水平。

迪联集团上周四（24日）宣布这项消息后，股价已连续3个交易日走高。周二以4.59令吉挂收，全天涨19仙或4.32%，是今日第5大上升股，成交量为215万股。

迪联集团旗下

Turboservices私人有限公司，上周所获得的燃气涡轮机长期维修合约，实为一项以长期服务合约（LTSA）框架，取代现有合约形式的更新性质合约，有效期长达7年，另为国油设立3年续约或提前终止合约的选项。

分析员指出，这项合约预料可为迪联集团每年贡献4000万至5000万令吉的营运盈利。

假如进一步检视该公司的业务结构，其75%至80%的营业额和营运盈利倚赖电能与机械部门（P&M），而此部门的70%至85%的营运盈利，即约4000万至5000万令吉，则倚赖这单为SolarTurbines公司在大马的燃气涡轮机提供维修服务的生意。

分析员补充，在80年代开始作为市场先锋，占大马岸外油气燃气涡轮机90%市占率的迪联集团，是卡特彼勒集团（Caterpillar）旗下SolarTurbines公司大马岸外油气业务安装燃气涡轮机的唯一供应商，并且有能力提供售后支援服务。

他认为，该公司在此业务的盈利前景兼具升和跌的可能性，因燃气涡轮机的需求可能升增，但在季候风等岸外油气活动放缓的季节，也增添不确定性。

券商买进心头好．PESTECH国际 获颁数合约成数高

兴业证券研究 目标价：2.82令吉
政府计划斥约8亿令吉提供不间断电力供应给国民，我们看好PESTECH国际（PESTECH，5219，主要板贸易）有很大机会获颁几份合约。
　截至本财年9月底，PESTECH国际拥有强大订单总额，达3亿3000万令吉，并预计该公司本地和海外市场业务有极大增长机会。
　2014财年财政预算案专注于农村发展，为了确保东马人民可享用24小时不间断的电力供应，政府将耗资约3亿令吉，以改善和加强发电厂和输电系统状态。
　基于PESTECH国际目前在砂拉越进行几项水电工程；作为间电力传输系统知名专家，我们认为该公司有巨大机会，在未来获得政府颁发合约。
　至今，PESTECH国际今年赢得额外水电工程提高订单值，从1亿8780万增至3亿3000万令吉。
　我们维持明讯“买进”评级，合理价为2.82令吉。
　PESTECH国际周一（28日）闭市收在2.36令吉，起1仙，成交量达4万7800股。

Hua Yang Berhad - Affordable Housing Advantage

HUAYANG held a briefing yesterday which reaffirmed our positive view based on these factors: (i) stronger billings in 2H14, which will be driven mainly by projects that are near to completion such as Parc@OneSouth, and (ii) immediate billings upon SPA for some of its upcoming projects as the substructure works are already underway. We believe our RM620.0m sales target for FY14E is achievable, buoyed by more than RM1.0b launches in the pipeline for the year and current unbilled sales of RM559m. Maintained TP of RM2.91, while maintaining our stance that it should be on parity with our DCF-driven RNAV.
Re-emphasizing targets will be met. Given the two consecutive quarters of underperformance, the management re-emphasized that their plans remain intact to achieve revenue and sales targets of c.RM0.5b and RM0.6b for FY14, respectively. In our earlier report dated 19 July, we mentioned that 2Q14 was expected to see QoQ improvements and true enough revenue improved 25.8% QoQ. Nevertheless, PBT was pretty flat with 0.3% QoQ growth. Management also guided that 2H14 will come in stronger on the back of stronger unbilled sales of RM559m and more than RM1b worth of launches in FY14. YTD, the company has launched RM288m worth of ongoing projects such as Taman Pulai Indah, Taman Pulai Hijauan and Bandar Universiti Seri Iskandar and soft launched Phase 5 of OneSouth, Sentrio Suites and Metia Residence worth RM463m, with promising bookings. Moreover, the company has already commenced piling and substructure works for Sentrio Suites and Metia Residences. Hence, this would mean immediate billings of c.20% when they rake-in SPA sales from these projects by year-end. Meanwhile, there are RM328m worth of new project launches lining up from now onwards to 1QCY14.
FY14E sales intact. Total RM1.0b GDV worth of projects will be launched this year which includes six new projects with total GDV of RM690m (e.g. Sentrio Suites, Metia Residences, The Gardens@Polo Park, Jalan Abdul Samad@Johor, Ridgewood@Bercham Permai and Anjung Bercham Megah, Perak). The breakdown between Klang Valley and other regions will be 43:57. Assuming a conservative takeup rate of 70% on the RM1.0b GDV, we believe our sales projections for FY14E of RM613m (+52% YoY) are realistic. However, we revised down our GP margin for FY14E by 1ppt to 32% due to higher construction cost resulting from labour shortage. Management highlighted their intention to maintain GP above 30% and believed that the labour cost issue would be moderate after completion of public infrastructure, typically the biggest component of any project.
HUAYANG continues to be one of our favourite property developers as it is one of the few to focus on the affordable housing market which will enjoy resilient demand for years to come. We also believe that it will not be impacted by the recent Budget 2014 property cooling measures as HUAYANG does not have any exposure to DIBS. We reckon the pool of mass home buyers will continue to grow prior to GST implementation as affordability becomes an overbearing issue.
Maintain earnings estimates for FY14E and FY15E of RM77m and RM112m respectively. We believe the estimates for FY14E is achievable supported by: (i) stronger billings in 2H14, which will be driven mainly by projects that are near to completion such as Parc@OneSouth, (ii) substructure works are underway for some of the upcoming new project launches, which mean billings will be immediate upon SPA sales.
Reiterate OUTPERFORM with unchanged TP of RM2.91. We maintain our stance that its TP should be on parity with its DCF-driven RNAV @ 10% WACC as we believe its ability to capitalise on its landbanks will become imminent as property prices continue to trend upwards coupled with the growing need for mass housings.
Source: Kenanga

Wellcall's expansion to meet five-year demand growth

Wellcall Holdings Bhd says its third factory, slated for completion in the 1Q2015 will meet the market demand for its products over the next five years. Wellcall is one of the largest manufacturers of industrial rubber hoses in the country. "We are currently in the process of finalising the factory layout and machinery," said executive director Alex Chew Chee Chek during his session at the iCapital.biz Bhd Investor Day 2013 last Sunday.

The new factory will be built on a tract measuring about 3.3ha located 1km away from its current factory site in Lahat, Perak. The company has also reclaimed land in the past few months to expand the total land area to approximately 3.5ha. (The Edge)

Mudajaya moves into renewable energy in Philippines

Mudajaya Power International (MPI), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mudajaya, acquires a 40% stake in Amihan Energy Corporation (AEC) for Php26.4m (RM1.9m). AEC is based in the Philippines and was granted a 25-year exclusive rights by the Department of Environment (DOE) to develop wind energy resources in Cebu. The venture involves a development of up to 200MW wind energy farm on an 18.2k ha land in phases over the next 5 years with an initial development of up to 50MW.

The equipment procurement (EP) works and the O&M contract shall be awarded to a nominee corporation of MPI based on agreed terms. The balance 60% stake in AEC is held equally by Windelsey Inc and Visayan Wind Energy Holdings Corp. (BMSB)

This is positive and marks the group's maiden venture into regional renewable energy (RE) assets. This move is not a surprise as the group has been in talks for a potential wind farm project and it is within management's guidance for 2H13. Progress is still in the early stages as the venture needs to secure financial closure which is targeted by end 2014. Total development cost for the entire 200MV facility could be around RM2bn, based on the benchmark development cost of US$3.2m/MW (c.RM500m for the initial 50MW). This values Mudajaya's equity portion at c.RM245m based on a 70:30 debt-equity mix. New associate earnings from this venture should start from FY15 at the earliest.

Source: CIMB Daybreak - 29 October 2013

Budget 2014 - Market Strategy: Stocks to BUY

In the past month, the FBM KLCI has rebounded by some 3% (to 1,817 points currently) on the back of the delay in QE tapering. While risk appetite has improved, earnings have not. Without a turnaround in the earnings revision cycle from an acceleration in corporate newsflow momentum, we do not believe that the liquidity-driven rebound can hold in the face of elevated forward PEs of between 16x-17x. Hence, we reaffirm our FBM KLCI fair value of 1,770 for this year, and 1,880 for 2014. That said, post-Budget 2014 still provides some great opportunities for stock picking. In this report, we highlight the prime beneficiaries.
- GST of 6% would be implemented on 1 April 2015, replacing the current sales tax of between 5%-10%. Cellular players may pass down taxes to consumers, given the elimination of the current 6% service tax – which is currently borne by the celcos for prepaid users. Postpaid service tax, on the other hand, is currently borne by subscribers. DiGi is the biggest beneficiary from this potential move given that it has the largest proportion of prepaid revenue compared to Celcom and Maxis. Circa 84% of DiGi’s subscribers comprise prepaid users compared with 78% for Celcom and 75% for Maxis. In terms of revenue, we estimate c.73% of DiGi’s service revenue to be derived from the prepaid segment versus 58% and 49% for Celcom and Maxis, respectively. We upgrade DiGi to BUY from HOLD with a higher fair value of RM5.70/share (vs. RM4.70/share previously). Axiata remains a BUY with a higher fair value of RM7.90share (vs. RM7.40/share previously). Meanwhile, Maxis remains a HOLD, but with a higher fair value of RM7.40/share (vs. RM6.55/ share).
- The real property gains tax (RPGT) would be raised to 30% for a holding period less than three years, 20% in Year 4 and 15% in Year 5. Like before, no RPGT would be applicable for a holding period exceeding five years. The stamp duty structure and loan-to-value ratio remain status quo. Some moderation in speculative buying is likely but the impact is not expected to be significant because RPGT is an exit tax. More importantly, the regulatory overhang is now removed. Residential pre-sales would surely re-accelerate in the coming months. We are BUYers of Mah Sing, IJM Land and E&O; the latter is our latest initiation. We expect E&O’s NAV to more than triple to RM4.61/share upon receiving regulatory approvals to commence reclamation works for STP II.
- Banks are no longer allowed to provide final funding for projects involved in the Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS). However, this was already widely expected, with minimal impact as the loans from DIBS generally contribute about 2% to 3% of total loans. GST is expected to be imposed on fee income and not on the loan portion, although exact details have yet to be spelt out. Public Bank is our only BUY for its consistent earnings delivery and good dividend track record.
- Even though the focal point of Budget 2014 continues to be on the government’s commitment to reduce the fiscal deficit, several infrastructure projects would nonetheless be implemented. IJM looks set to leverage on the rollout of two major projects, namely the West-Coast Expressway and the Kuantan Port expansion. Both projects may signal a long-awaited turnaround of IJM’s construction division with the normalisation of profit margins. We estimate that both projects may almost triple its order book to RM8.0bil. Both Gamuda and WCT with their respective Chinese partners are among the three finalists for the RM8.0bil Gemas-JB rail line. IJM is our top pick in the sector.
- The ‘sin’ sectors – brewery and gaming – were spared from higher duties although there is the perennial risk of a tax hike off-Budget, like in the case of the 14% hike in excise duty last month for the tobacco sector. Nonetheless, we are still cautious about prospects for the brewers because of shrinking MLM volume and limited room for dividend surprises. We like Genting Bhd as its share price would be supported by a special dividend of RM0.50/share. It also offers a cheaper exposure to Genting Singapore with an acquisition-driven growth.
- Tenaga is a BUY. We expect Tenaga’s 4Q results (to be released next week) to be strong, which may trigger upward revisions to its EPS and fair value. The earnings surprise may come from lower-than-expected coal prices, currently averaging at US$80/tonne vs. our assumption of US$85/tonne. A US$5/tonne reduction would raise our DCF valuation by 12% from RM10.45/share to RM11.70/share. Additionally, we expect improved earnings transparency from Tenaga’s gradual implementation of incentive-based regulatory initiatives, which will facilitate an automatic cost-pass through tariff-setting mechanism. Competitive bids for new power plants, such as the upcoming 2,000MW greenfield coalfired power plant, would contribute to the moderation in Tenaga’s overall unit cost per kWhr. The stock currently trades at an attractive P/BV of 1.5x vs. its 5-year range of 1x-2.7x.
- The implementation of the GST will have no impact on glove manufacturers’ earnings as gloves, which are mainly for exports, are levied a zero-rated output tax. They can, however, take advantage of the input tax credit mechanism to claim GST incurred on their raw materials. Our top BUYs are Top Glove Corp for its volume play and its move up the value chain to nitrile (currently 25% of sales but growing to 50% in three years), and Kossan for its cheaper valuations. Elsewhere, Berjaya Food may see better profit margins as the implementation of GST would replace the current sales tax (5%-10%) and service tax (6%). Following its recent product price increases for Kenny Rogers Malaysia, SSSG has turned positive while its Indonesian operations are coming along nicely.
Source: AmeSecurities

Boustead sees benefit in maritime allocation

Boustead Holdings Bhd hopes to benefit from the RM3bn allocation in soft loans under the Maritime Development Fund announced under Budget 2014 last Friday, said group managing director Tan Sri Lodin Wok Kamaruddin. "We are very much involved in ship building, we hope in some way to get a slice of that allocation in the budget," Lodin said. He added that the group could also benefit from the proposal in the budget to extend the pioneer status for hotels for another three years until December 2016. (Financial Daily)

PLANTATIONS - Emergence of New Biodiesel Mandate?

According to a Business Times report last week, industry and government officials are in the final stages of talks in implementing B7 biodiesel as early as December. The blended biodiesel, which is a mixture of 7% palm oil and 93% diesel, will eventually replace the current B5 biodiesel. Given the right subsidy and incentives, it is expected that biodiesel players in Malaysia can take up 700,000mt of CPO from the palm oil stocks for the B7 mandate, which will help restore CPO prices back to stable levels. However, the inherent difficulties of running the programme remains our major doubt as profitability is subject to fluctuations in crude oil and palm oil prices. We maintain Neutral call on the sector.
Will help reduce palm oil stockpile. Based on the previous assumptions on the B5 and B10 mandate, it is expected that the B7 mandate will take away 700,000mt palm oil from the current palm oil inventories of 1.7m mt, which will bode well for the recovery of palm oil prices. In addition, it also helps reduce dependency on China and India, which are the two largest vegetable oil importing countries, accounting for 32% of Malaysia’s palm oil exports YTD.
Need to address the viability and usage of B7. Currently, the usage of biodiesel is only limited to government-owned vehicles within the various ministries and for diesel engine vehicles used in the oil palm plantation estates. As the government wants to encourage the usage of biodiesel further, there is a need to receive the “green light” from engine manufacturers on the viability of B7. Apart from that, government also can consider exporting biodiesel to European countries as its Indonesian and Argentine counterparts are being slapped with anti-dumping duties on biodiesel exports to EU.
Uncertainty over the the long-term prospects. The introduction of B7 has triggered our concern whether government is still running the B10 biodiesel project as it has indicated in the beginning that it tends to roll out nationwide by middle of next year. As biodiesel business is only profit-making when crude oil and CPO prices are below USD100/barrel and RM2,250/mt respectively, the long-term prospects of biodiesel remain uncertain.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 28 Oct 2013

Pestech International - Stands Good Chance Of Bidding For More Jobs

Following the announcement of Budget 2014, we believe that Pestech stands a good chance of picking up some jobs from the Government, which is allocating MYR865m for the provision of uninterrupted electricity supply nationwide. In highlighting the frequent electricity supply disruption in Sabah, the Budget is allocating  MYR265m towards  upgrading  the Tenom Pangi  hydro  power  station and  construction of  the Kimanis electricity transmission lines as well as a main switch station in Sandakan. The company’s total orderbook amounts to MYR330m as at end-September 2013.  We  still like Pestech’s  strong  orderbook and growing business opportunities  in  the  local and  overseas markets. Maintain BUY, with an unchanged MYR2.82 FV, pegged to a target P/E of 10x.

Budget 2014 turns spotlight on rural development. As part of its efforts in rural development, the Government is allocating MYR865m for the provision  of  24-hour  uninterrupted  electricity  supply  to  more  than  16,000  homes  nationwide.  It  also  turned  its  attention  to  the  frequent electricity  supply  disruption  in  Sabah  via  a  MYR265m  allocation  to  strengthen  the  state’s  generation  and  transmission  system.  Among  the projects  proposed  in the Budget  are  the  upgrading  of  the  Tenom Pangi  hydro  power  station and the  construction of  the  Kimanis electricity transmission lines as well as a main switch station in Sandakan.

Pestech stands a chance of clinching some jobs. Pestech has several ongoing projects in Sarawak. Besides a few projects in Samalaju Industrial Park  from  OM  Materials (Sarawak) SB and  Asia Cement Co Ltd,  it  has  also won two jobs from Sarawak Energy Bhd (SEB).  Being a reputable specialist of power transmission systems, the company stands a good chance of winning the bids.

Replenishes orderbook by MYR187.8m  YTD.  So far this year, Pestech  has been able to replenish its orderbook by MYR187.8m to MYR330.0m as at end of September 2013.  In September,  it  won a MYR95.6m contract from SEB  to build  a 275/33kV  substation  in Mapai, Sibu.  The job is part  of  the  500kV  transmission  backbone  project  initiated  by  SEB  to  reinforce  Sarawak’s  existing  power  transmission  system  in  case  the existing line breaks down.

Maintain  BUY,  with  MYR2.82  FV.  We believe that Pestech would be one of the forerunners in bidding  for Government jobs given its good reputation and  sound  track record in the power transmission system industry.  We make no changes to our forecasts. Overall, the company’s fundamentals  are unchanged, with  its  strong orderbook  boosting its growth while it  continues to  seek business opportunities in the  local and overseas markets. Maintain BUY, with a FV of MYR2.82, pegged to an unchanged target P/E of 10x.

Source: RHB

Labels: PESTECH

Real Estate - Budget 2014 Measures To May Deal a Blow

The  property  cooling  measures  announced  in  Budget  2014  will  be adequate to curb speculation and ensure healthy growth of the property industry.  Although sector valuations have factored in the policy risk to some  extent,  we  see  downside  potential  for  the  valuations  of  some stocks, particularly those that are highly exposed to the Iskandar region and have high foreign proportion of buyers. Maintain NEUTRAL.

• Needs  time to heal.  In the face of  the  new property  cooling  measures, we  expect  the  current  consolidation  in  property  demand  and  prices  to continue.  Based  on  past  experience,  the  market  is  likely  to  need  3-6 months to adjust to the regulation changes.
• Iskandar  the  worst  hit.  Developers  which  have  high  exposure  to  the Iskandar  region  will  be  the  most  adversely  affected.  The  30%  Real Property  Gains  Tax  (RPGT)  imposed on foreigners for disposals  within the  first  five  years  will  discourage  short-term  foreign  speculators  from buying properties. The holding period of a minimum of five years is the key deterrent. According to CBRE, foreign purchasers account for 54% of high-rise residential sales in Nusajaya and 39% in JB city a s well as the  major  suburbs.  Although  the  demand  for  certain  attractive  projects will remain, we expect a knee-jerk slowdown in  overall  sales in Iskandar in the near term as the market is now less attractive than in the past.
• Penang  mainland  still  healthy.  The  Penang  mainland,  on  the  other hand,  will  still  see  healthy  growth  as  local  property  demand  is  largely driven  by  genuine  buyers  for  occupancy  purposes.  Job  opportunities created by both  foreign and local MNCs  and the opening  of the Penang Second Bridge remain the key catalysts for demand growth.
• Developers relying  on local buyers will fare better.  Local buyers are still  the  main  stream  of  sustainable  buyers.  The  silver  lining  will  be developers  which  concentrate  on  affordable  housing  and  township developments.  High-rise  and  luxury  segments,  in  particular,  will  likely see a temporary slowdown in demand.
• Maintain NEUTRAL. Stick with IJM Land and Tambun Indah. We see no relief for the sector as the new measures will have an overall negative impact on developers. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector. We continue to like IJMLD and Tambun Indah  given the  companies’  solid fundamentals and minimal exposure to foreign buyers.

Targeting Speculators

Key measures tabled in Budget 2014:

1. The  Real  Property  Gains  Tax  (RPGT)  on  properties  disposed  within  the holding period of up to three years is raised to 30%, whereas for disposal within the holding period up to four and five years, the rates are increased to 20% and 15%, respectively. For disposals made in the sixth and subsequent years,  no  RPGT  is imposed on  citizens,  whereas companies  are  taxed  at 5%.
2. For  non-citizens,  a  30%  RPGT  is  imposed  on  the  gains  from  properties disposed within the holding period of up to five years, and for disposals in the sixth and subsequent years, a 5% RPGT is imposed. The new tax regime (1 & 2) will be effective from 1 Jan 2014.
3. Raising  the  floor  price  of  properties  for  foreign  buyers  to  MYR1m  from MYR500k.
4. Removal  of  Developer  Interest  Bearing  Scheme  (DIBS).  Financial institutions are prohibited from providing final funding for proje cts involved in the DIBS scheme.
5. To increase  transparency in property sales prices, whereby detailed sales prices including all benefits and incentives will have to be displayed.
6. Introduction of Private Affordable Ownership Housing Scheme (MyHome) to encourage private sector to build more low-  and medium-cost houses. The scheme provides a subsidy of MYR30k to the private developers for each unit built. Among the criteria for the scheme are:

• Build at least 20% low-cost houses and 20% medium-cost houses in a housing project
• The  maximum  price  of  low-cost  houses  is  MYR45k  and  medium-cost houses is MYR170k
• First-time  buyers  with  a  monthly  household  income   of  MYR3k  are eligible  for  low-cost  houses,  whereas  those  with  a  maximum  monthly household income of MYR6k are eligible for medium-cost houses.

Still bearable for locals.  While some measures were within our expectations, such as  an  increase  in  RPGT  for  the  locals,  higher  floor  price  for  foreigners  and  the removal  of  the  DIBS,  one  new  measure  was  rather  unexpected  –  the  significant
RPGT imposed on foreign buyers. Compared to previous  budgets, Budget  2014 has the  most  punitive  combination  of  measures  for  the  property  sector  as  the Government  strives  to  keep  speculation  in  check,  targeting  both  local  and  foreign buyers  alike.  This  is  also  part  of  the  Government’s  efforts  to  contain  the  rising household  leverage  in  Malaysia.  Such  measures  will  help  ensure  the  long-term healthy growth of the property industry.

The 30% tax rate on local property owners has been extended  for another year, ie disposal within three years vs.  two years previously  (from 2004 to 2007).  Among all the measures,  we believe  the  impact of  a  higher RPGT  on  local property owners is
relatively mild. This is because  most of the new properties will take  2-3 years to be completed, and hence sellers will be subject to  a  lower gain tax bracket in year 4, which is at 20% under the new regime  (vs.  30% in year 1-3),  double  the previous 10% tax rate under the old regime. Historically, when RPGT was imposed, the house price index (HPI)  typically  declined for 2-3 quarters  before a rebound was seen. We expect the same trend to take place this time round.

Iskandar the hardest hit

The  30%  RPGT  for  foreigners  for  disposals  within  the  first  five  years  will  wipe  out short-term foreign speculators to a certain extent, as the holding period of a minimum of  five  years  will  drive  them  away,  in  our  view.  The  higher  floor  price  is  another deterrent  for  foreign  buyers  in  Iskandar,  particularly  for  investment/speculative purposes.  Developers  with  high  exposure  to  the  Iskandar  region  will  be  the  most adversely affected as the area has gained significant traction among foreigners over the  past  1-2  years,  especially  among  Singaporeans  due  to  the  strong  SGD. According  to  CBRE,  foreign  purchasers  accounted  for  54%  of  total  high-rise residential  sales  (sales by  developers)  in  Nusajaya,  and 39%  in JB city  and major suburbs.  Property  prices  have  also  risen  sharply,  with  the  pricing  of  some  new launches  already  matching  those  of  KL  city  centre  condominiums.  Medini,  in particular, which has no  Bumioutra  quota  (although no minimum price restriction for
foreigners), will likely see a knee-jerk slowdown  in property sales over the near  term, as the market is now less lucrative compared to  before.  While there is still  demand for  some  attractive  projects,  compared  to  a  simple  buying  decision  previously, potential foreign buyers will now have to think twice before  purchasing properties in Malaysia.  Based  on  official  data,  Johor  residential  and  commercial  property transactions  historically made up 10-12% of the total transaction volume in Malaysia.
Although the percentage is higher for Selangor (ie 25-28%), the transaction volume in the Klang Valley is largely made up of Malaysian buyers . Therefore, we are  not too concerned on developers that concentrate in KL and Selangor.

As a result of the RPGT hike, and hence potentially higher land holding costs,  land transactions  in  Iskandar,  especially  from  overseas  developers,  may  slow  down  as property sales will likely languish over the next six months. Given such a situation, we
are now uncertain if the Johor state government will  still go ahead with  the  proposedm 4-5% processing fee that will be imposed on foreigners, as the  impact of the  30% RPGT is already detrimental.

Developers  which  have  exposure  to  Iskandar  include  UEM  Sunrise,  Sunway,  SP Setia, Mah Sing, KSL, and to some extent, IJM Land and E&O.

Penang mainland still healthy
Penang  island  will  see  some  impact,  although  this  will  likely  be  less  significant compared to Iskandar. The number  of foreign buyers in Penang island is not large in our  view,  and  they  are  mainly  concentrated  in  Seri  Tanjung  Pinang  and  Batu
Ferringhi. In addition,  the impact of the higher floor price on foreigners is negligible in Penang island, as the Penang state government had earlier raised the floor price to MYR1m for high-rise and MYR2m for landed properties.

Penang mainland, on the other hand, will still see healthy growth, as  local property demand is largely driven by genuine buyers for owner occupancy.  Property prices are still  relatively  decent.  Employment  opportunities  created  by  both  foreign  and  local
MNCs at Batu Kawan and Seberang Prai are key to  support business activities and population expansion.  The opening of the Penang Second Bridge  in early 2014  will still  be  a  major  catalyst  for  mainland  properties.  Just  recently,  an  Italy-based  car
component maker Magneti Marelli has launched a new plant in Batu Kawan, which will create a workforce of 1,000 people. Besides this, Ibiden, Boon Siew Honda, VAT, Malaysia Automotive Lighting, Haemonetics Corporation are among the local/foreign
players which have committed their investments, and some have started running their new operations. Note also that, the global furniture maker  IKEA has been looking to open an outlet on the mainland. Positive news flow will likely continue.

No more DIBS
This measure  was expected. We believe most developers are well prepared for the removal  of  DIBS  and  will  most  likely  launch  some  new  schemes  or  incentives  to circumvent this. On the ground, we understand that some developers have already
introduced  new  incentives  for  buyers  with  the  introduction  of  “DISS”  (Developer Interest  Subsidy  Scheme),  whereby  developers  will  reimburse  the  buyers  an equivalent amount every month after buyers repay their installments to the banks.

To recap, the DIBS has been widely used by developers since the subprime crisis in 2009 to revive demand for properties. Lower upfront  entry cost is offered to buyers with only a 5% downpayment and 95% margin financing. Interest is absorbed by the
developers, and buyers do not have to pay loan installments during the period that the  property  is  under construction.  Not  many  developers under our coverage  have excessive exposure to this scheme currently,  as they have gradually withdrawn the scheme  from  some  better  selling  projects  over  the  last  1-2  years.  Currently,  most developers only offer DIBS for the slow-moving projects, mainly concentrating on the high-rise residential segment. Property price growth in the primary ma rket could see a temporary slowdown as developers can no longer mark up their selling prices  too aggressively.

Although  impact  from  this  measure  alone  would  be  minimal,  we  believe  the cumulative  impact  from  all  the  measures  imposed  will  have  an  overall  negative impact on  the sector.  Among the companies under our coverage, we see IJM Land
and  Tambun  Indah  having  the  least  risk exposure.  Sunway,  UOAD,  UEM  Sunrise, Mah Sing and E&O, on the other hand, have higher percentage of projects that come with the DIBS.

Impact of GST
In  normal circumstances, the net impact of GST will drive up property prices. While some believe that it would lead to buyers flocking to purchase properties  in  the near term  (from  now  to  March  2015  until  the  GST  starts),  we  believe  the  demand  will ultimately depend on affordability. Given all the measures  tabled  in Budget 2014, we expect property prices to continue its current consolidation trend.

Maintain NEUTRAL
Investor  sentiment  will  be  hit.  The  cumulative  impact  will  be  painful  for  property developers  in  the near term, and it will likely take about  3-6 months for the market to adjust itself.  Although  the sector valuations have factored in the policy risk to some extent, we believe  there is still  downside  to  valuations for some stocks, particularly those that are highly exposed to the Iskandar region and have high foreig n  property buying  content.  All  these  measures  are  expected  to  create  some  uncertainties  for most developers in  launching  their projects  already in the pipeline.  Developers that rely more on local buyers will fare better.  The silver lining will be developers which concentrate on affordable housing segment, such as Tambun Indah, Matrix Concepts and Hua Yang. In maintaining our 4Q13 view, we keep our  NEUTRAL stance on the sector.  We  are  selective  in  our  stock  picks.  We  continue  to  like  IJM  Land  and Tambun  Indah  given  their  solid  fundamentals  and  minimal  exposure  to  foreign purchasers.  Note  that,  IJM  Land’s  The  Light  Phase  1  is  only  left  with  the  final Collection  IV  series  and  hence  will  not  be  an issue  for  the  company.  Although  we retain  our  NEUTRAL  rating  on  UEM  Sunrise,  E&O  is kept  at  Trading  BUY,  largely because of the catalyst of upcoming approval for its Seri Tanjung Pinang 2 project, and we reiterate our view that, the stock is an attractive takeover target.

Source: RHB

预算案回响】国人购屋等等看 短期投资者急脱手

（吉隆坡26日讯）着名房地产专家拿督斯里郑水兴表示，政府宣布首3年产业盈利税（RPGT）增至30%等措施，或导致国人延后购买房子的计划，以及一些短期投资者在明年1月前脱售所拥有的产业。

他说，政府在新财案宣布首3年盈利税（RPGT）增至30%，一些人士认为产业盈利税上调，房价会随即下调，所以暂时抱观望的态度，延后他们买屋计划，这或会使到新房屋项目销售会放缓。

他也不排除一些短期投资者的确会赶在今年12月31日之前脱售产业，以免被徵收30%盈利税。

郑水兴今天在马中经济贸易总商会主办的分析2014年财政预算案的讲座上，如是表示。

他表示，调高产业盈利税的措施也可能影响外国投资者，但他相信经过解说，投资者会对大马房产未来前景更有信心。

「尤其是11丶12月份是最多外国投资者的时期，所以会造成短暂的冲击。」

「黄金5年」

他把未来5年形容为房地产「黄金5年」，随着大东南亚时代的降临，大马房地产发展不能出差错，政府采取措施打击产业市场投机活动带来健康的发展趋势。

「随着印尼的崛起，缅甸的开放，大东南亚已形成拥有6亿人口的经济强体，是美国和中国都非常重视的市场。」

郑水兴认为，2014年财政预算案针对房地产的内容尚算温和，整体上是带来鼓舞的作用。

对于政府提高外国买家购房门槛，上调外国人的最低购房价从50万令吉增至100万令吉，郑水兴认为这措施将使产业更集中地的发展。

他也看好柔南区的依斯干达丶大吉隆坡丶槟城丶马六甲和沙巴亚庇将是外国人集中地，投资在这几个地点肯定有利可图。

预算案打房 产业股输家

吉隆坡26日讯）2014年预算案推出一系列的打房措施，分析员普遍认为，产业领域是这一次预算案主要的输家，专注高档市场的产业股，将面对最大的冲击。

预算案中宣布，将3年内脱售房产的盈利税调涨至30%，同时，也禁止发展商为客户承担利息的计划（DIBS），及将外国人可购买房产的价格底限，从50万提高至100万令吉。

拉昔胡申研究指出，产业领域受预算案的影响最严重，虽然产业领域原本已经预期将会出现一些打房措施。而这些措施，预料也将对依斯甘达特区的产业市场造成冲击。

分析员指出，这些措施可能带来比预期更严重的影响，甚至将拖累银行领域的贷款成长。

MIDF研究分析员则认为，在2014年预算案的措施实施之後，产业价格及销售成长将缓慢下来。不过，购屋自住的需求预料将继续支撑产业领域的成长。

安联研究分析员也相信，产业领域的需求将会受到影响，而近期价格已经大幅走高的依斯甘达特区高楼产业，也将面对风险。

投资者情绪转弱

分析员指出，非住宅产业交易在2015年4月开始将被徵收6%的消费税，也如同在伤口上撒盐，进一步影响商业产业的需求，并可能造成供应过剩的局面。

唯一值得欣慰的是，原本市场预期可能提高印花税的措施，没有实现。

MIDF分析员也指出，在外资购屋热点有高档发展项目的发展商，相信会面对冲击。投资者对产业股的投资情绪也将转弱。

MIDF 研究维持对产业领域的中和看法。首选股是IJM置地（IJMLand，5215，主板产业股）及高美达（Glomac，5020，主板产业股），因为，有 地产业及可负担产业仍会获得良好的需求。分析员也打算将专注高档产业的依恩奥（E&O，3417，主板产业股）及UEM阳光 （UEMS，5148，主板产业股）的评级调降至中和。

安联研究则指出，虽然2014财政预算案对产业领域负面，不过，由於目前产业股的估值偏低，因此，分析员仍维持中和的评级。

马来西亚2014年财政预算案简要 简单易懂 必定读懂

2013年505大选后，首相纳吉今天下午4时正式向国会下议院提呈首份财政预算案。

今天纳吉身穿橙色马来服装，恰巧和民联的替代预算案橙色书皮一样，引来民联议员的调侃。

乐投资在预算案公布后，进行了资料收集和再编辑，以更简单易懂的方式让大家读懂国家未来的财政开销。

这份预算案总共提出5大重点，分别是：

1. 加强经济活动
2. 巩固财政管理
3. 加强人力资本
4. 加强城乡发展
5. 人民生活和谐

关于总开销

2014年财政预算案将会拨出2642亿令吉开支落实各种利惠人民和发展国家的计划。其中，2177亿令吉是行政开销，而465亿令吉是发展开销。

关于国民生产总值(GDP)

2014的国民生产总值增长预料为5%-5.5%，和2011年以及2012年不相上下。

关于通货膨胀

通膨率预计是2%至3%。

关于财政赤字

政府估计，2014年联邦政府收入为2241亿令吉，比2013年多出40亿令吉。财政赤字可望从今年的4%下滑至3.5%，财政赤字指的是政府开销大于政府收入。

这个财政赤字是怎么算的？财政赤字是对应GDP计算的，可以看看以下例子：

举例2014年国家M收入RM100，但开销是RM120，财政赤字为 –RM20

假设2014年国家M的GDP为RM1000，财政赤字则为2%。

关于国家建设

公共投资预料将高达1060亿令吉，包括兴建316公里长的西海岸达到衔接万津，以及从怡保至巴东勿刹的双轨火车计划，还有金马士到新山的双轨火车计划。除此之外，纳吉宣布将耗资7亿令吉在吉隆坡国际机场兴建新的航空指挥系统，取代梳邦机场的旧系统。

政府也将拨款4000万令吉来加宽金马伦高原巴登河的河道，以免近日的泄洪灾难重演。

至于年轻人最关心的宽频问题，政府将投资18亿令吉来改善国内宽频，同时也会在未来3年投资15亿令吉兴建1000座新的通讯塔。

政府也拨款8亿5000万令吉来兴建新的海底电缆，来改善东马的网络。

这些发展预料能将网速从现有的4mbps，提升至10mbps，约280万用户受惠。

根据2013年全球最大云端服务供应商美国Akamai科技公布的网速报告，大马平均网速为1.8Mbps，排在世界第73名。

关于教育拨款

政府将拨款4亿5000万令吉用作学校维修用途，其中国小获1亿令吉、华小、淡小、教会学校、寄宿学校、玛拉理科初级学院、政府资助的宗教学校和人民宗教学校将可获5000万令吉。

纳吉用淡米尔语感谢印裔选民在上届大选的支持，因此同意拨出1亿令吉来加强印裔社会的教育。

关于津贴

政府将从明日开始废除34仙的白糖津贴，以减少国内的糖尿病患者。国内目前有260万名30岁以上者是糖尿病患者。

根据网络资料显示，糖尿病的起因十分复杂,目前医学界也没有将它查出个所以然来,但是一般的观点都认为糖尿病的起因和以下几点因素有关。

1. 遗传
2. 精神因素
3. 肥胖
4. 营养过剩人群
5. 感染
6. 多次妊娠也会使遗传基因转弱从而诱发糖尿病

因此本文作者无法确认首相的“用心良苦”是否有科学依据。

除了白糖之外，政府2013年拨出470亿令吉作为各种津贴，其中248亿令吉或53%是用在燃油，全民都能享有，并且出现滥用现象。因此，政府将分阶段重组津贴，以确保真正有资格者才能享有。节省下来的津贴将会用作派发现金援助和发展国家。

关于消费税

政府将会废除销售税和服务税，并以消费税（GST）取而代之。

消费税将从2015年4月1日开始生效，一开始征收的税率是6%。

纳吉强调：“这将是亚洲国家当中最低。”

他也保证，日常用品如白米、米粉、辣椒等都不会征收消费税。

关于公司和个人所得税

政府也会降低个人所得税1至3%，其中最高税率将从26%减至25%，2015年生效。

收入4000令吉以下的家庭将无需缴纳所得税。

公司所得税将从25%减至24%，中小企业的所得税也会从20%下降至19%。

关于产业盈利税

外国公民在马来西亚购买房产的最低价格要求从原本的50万增加到100万。

产业盈利税也上涨，3年以内出售的房子将征收30%的产业盈利说，而第4年和5年出售的房子则征收20%和15%。

关于人民能拿的钱

如果你是公务员，将可获得半个月花红，最低500令吉。

如果你是小学生和中学生，可获得100令吉，估计受惠人数达540万，总共耗资5亿4000万令吉。

如果你是大学预备班或大学生，可获得250令吉的书券，估计将有130万人受惠，耗资3亿2500万令吉。

如果你是单身且薪水低于2000令吉，个人所获的款额将从250令吉增至300令吉。

如果家庭收入每月低于3000令吉，所获得的款额将从500令吉增至650令吉。

如果家庭收入每月高于3000令吉但低于4000令吉，将可获得450令吉。（原先不在援助计划内）

政府也会提供价格50令吉的一马人民集体保险给所有一马援助金受惠家庭，如果发生死亡或失去工作能力，就可以获得3万令吉。

关于马来西亚退休金计划

为了鼓励更多人参与一个马来西亚退休金计划，政府将把原订5％的缴纳额提高至10％，或每年最高60令吉提高至120令吉。

这将从2014年1月1日生效制2017年杪，预料将吸引3万名新缴纳者。

上述退休金计划旨在让没有固定收入的自雇者自愿缴付公积金，目前有6万6000名缴纳者。

私人退休计划下一年累计投资1000令吉的青年，也将获得500令吉一次性奖掖。

这项奖励将发给20岁至30岁的人士，预料将吸引42万人参与这项计划。

上述奖励将从2014年1月1日开始，为期5年，共2亿1000万令吉。

上述计划是鼓励青年通过长期投资趁早储蓄。

Source: leinvest

CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust - Healthy rental reversion of 6.5% BUY

We reaffirm our BUY recommendation on CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT), with an unchanged fair value of RM2.15/unit, derived from our DCF-based valuation.
- CMMT recorded distribution income of RM40mil (+4% QoQ, +6% YoY) in 3QFY13, bringing 9MFY13 to RM117mil (+4% YoY). This came in line with our and consensus’ estimates of 75% and 74% respectively.
- The results were driven by positive rental reversion of 6.5%, mainly contributed by Gurney Plaza (+7.9%), The Mines (+10.3%) and East Coast Mall (+18.9%), offsetting the slide in rental reversion for Sungei Wang Plaza (-3%) as shopper traffic were affected by refurbishment works and MRT downtime.
- Nevertheless, refurbishment works for Sungei Wang Plaza are coming to a tail-end, with an expected completion by year-end. While the MRT downtime may result in a flat rental growth, CMMT is ideally positioned as a long-term beneficiary of the upcoming Bukit Bintang Central MRT station.
- Business is proceeding as usual at East Coast Mall (attaining the highest rental reversion) despite ongoing asset enhancement initiatives since April, i.e. reconfiguration of existing areas and conversion of some car park bays on third floor into retail space. We see further upside in rental upon completion in 4QFY14F, given the low rental base (RM5+psf) and demand for retail space.
- Portfolio occupancy remained strong at 99%. Only 4.2% of the leases are left for renewal this year. FY14F will see a strong 44% of leases due for renewal.
- Gearing remains comfortable at 28%. Average cost of debt stands at 4.3% vs. 4.7% in 2QFY13.
- All in all, our EPU estimates are unchanged, with the assumption that Queensbay Mall will be injected next year.
- A potential acquisition could be in the making given that:- (1) Right of first refusal on Queensbay Mall from its sponsor; we think that the mall is already a ready and yield-accretive asset; and (2) CMMT is awarded a letter of intent to explore the possibility of acquiring Tropicana City Mall and its office building.
- We continue to believe that CMMT has a first mover acquisition advantage, in which the group will be the first to embark on acquisition compared to the other retail REITs.
Source: AmeSecurities

Pantech Group Holdings - 2H14 Earnings To Accelerate

Actual vs. Expectations  Pantech Group Holdings Bhd (PANTECH)’s 2Q14 net profit of RM15.3m brought its 1H14 net profit to RM29.1m which is largely within expectations, accounting for 44.0% and 44.5% of our (RM66.1m) and the consensus (RM65.3m) full year estimates, respectively.
 We believe PANTECH is still on-track to meet our full-year forecast on earnings acceleration in the 2H14 on the back of continued improvement in its stainless steel division.
Dividends  A NDPS of 1.2 sen was declared, bringing the 1H14 NDPS to 2.4 sen and accounted for 45.3% of our full-year NDPS expectation of 5.3 sen.
Key Results Highlights  QoQ, 2Q14 revenue was lower at RM153.8m compared to RM162.3m in 1Q14 mainly due to weaker products demand from the trading division. However, net profit in 2Q14 increased by 11.0% due to: (i) increase in manufacturing output to satisfy the increase in the local and export sales demand, and (ii) better margin from the manufacturing division due to increase in niche products sales.
 YoY, despite a 6.3% decrease in revenue, net profit was up by 7.0% mainly due to better margin from the stainless steel division which offset the weaker trading division’s performance.
 YTD, PANTECH registered a higher revenue of RM316.1m (+2.2%) and net profit of RM29.1m (+8.6%) mainly due to better contribution from manufacturing division as mentioned above.
Outlook  The trading and manufacturing divisions will continue to be buoyed by: (i) rising project flows from the regional oil and gas sector and (ii) contributions from new markets with its recent acquisition of Nautic Steels in the UK.
 Management guides that it will contest the US anti-dumping suit on its stainless steel division, and hopes to get a resolution by 1QCY14. As an alternative strategy, PANTECH is actively looking to shift production to higher-end stainless steel fittings production (which is not subject to such anti-dumping laws and have higher margins than stainless steel pipes); and is actively exploring other potential export markets such as South America and European countries.
 Management does not rule out any further M&As as growth catalysts.
Change to Forecasts  Although the 1H14 NDPS is lower than envisaged, we are maintaining our forecasts on an expectation of higher payout in subsequent quarters.
 As the results were within expectations, we are maintaining our FY14 and FY15 projections.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation  We maintain our target price of RM1.28 based on unchanged CY14 target PER of 12x.
 Our current target PER is close to the +2.0 standard deviation level of 11.7x as we firmly believe PANTECH still has more upside potential buoyed by (i) its entry into new markets (Pertamina and UK), and (ii) further contract flows given the current boom in the oil and gas sector, which is similar to the 2007-2008 boom.
Risks to Our Call  i) Sudden downturn in the oil and gas sector and (ii) significant swings in raw material costs could lead to lower operating margins.

Invert, always Invert. 5 Inverted Questions for Maximum Investing Succes

My left fist is clenched at the back of my neck.
My right hand is holding a pen like a dagger and my jaw muscles are tight and sticking out.
That was me trying to work difficult math problems back in school. If somebody, anybody, had introduced me to Carl Jacobi, it would have saved me a lot of heartache.
Who is Carl Jacobi anyways?
None other than the German 19th century mathematician all-star. Unlike me, when Jacobi encountered difficult problems, he was fond of saying;

Invert, always invert.

Sound familiar? Yes. Charlie Munger took the lesson from Jacobi and introduced it to value investors.
While math problems are less of an issue in investing, the multi-disciplinary approach is highly relevant and useful.
Investing is full of variables and problems that leave me dumbfounded.
So what should a guy like me do?

Invert, always invert.

Common “Verted” Questions

One of the most common things you do when you approach a stock is to estimate intrinsic value in the long run.
How much is it worth?
How much will I make?
How long will it take?
Categorize these questions as forward looking.
If the growth prospects are there, or if it looks like the next big thing, these questions help you jump on the bandwagon.
E.g. it’s easy to join the mad dash with the hottest thing like the Social Media ETF (SOCL). After all, the internet is only going to grow as more devices are used by people to be constantly connected.
But with every investment there are two sides to the story, and the other side is what Jacobi and Munger want you to think about.

Invert, Always Invert. 5 Inverted Investing Questions

The purpose of investing is to make money. To make money, there are two main ways.

1. “Risk equals reward” style of investing
2. Conservative style by focusing on not losing money

Warren Buffett chooses the second option.

Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money.
Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1.

Unless you and I are trained, the most common way to think is the first option. However, to get to Buffett’s playing field, it takes lots of trial and error to get from “how much can I make?” to “how do I not lose money?”.
Same destination. Different road taken.
Here are the top 5 inverted questions I like to ask myself when looking at stocks. It helps me break up the mindset of trying to find bullish reasons.

• How can I lose money? vs How can I make money?
• What is this stock NOT worth? vs What is this stock going to be worth?
• What can go wrong? vs What growth drivers are there?
• What is the market implied discount rate? vs What is a fair discount rate?
• What is market implied growth rate? vs What is the future growth rate?

and a bonus question.

• If this drops 50% today, will I buy more? vs When will I sell?

Thank you Charlie Munger for teaching me to “Invert, always invert”. I just wish you introduced Jacobi to me back in high school
What about you? What inverted questions do you ask yourself?
 

爱可思产托 第3季净利涨90%

（吉隆坡22日讯）爱可思产托（AXREIT，5106，主要板产托）投资物业获重估，助推高公司第3季营业额和净利，分别增长7%和90%。
　爱可思产托周一（21日）向马证交所报备，截至9月30日，净利大涨90%，从1931万令吉增至3667万令吉；营业额起7%，从3280万令吉增至3531万令吉
　文告指出，公司配合会计师于本财年7月开始为旗下投资物业进行重估，重估后的物业净收益达1463万7000令吉，使截至本财年9月底的每单位净资产值从2.1754令吉升至2.2073令吉。
　爱可思产托公布，公司将进行第4次收入分配再投资计划（IDRP），股东可选择把股息（至少2.2仙）再投资在公司的新单位，每单位发行价为3.20令吉。
　该公司房产投资信托基金经理，将以现金形式支付余额2.5仙，给选择参与上述再投资计划的投资者。

TA ANN HOLDINGS BERHAD - Banking On Plantations

We initiate coverage on Ta Ann Holdings (Ta Ann) with an Outperform call and SOP-derived target price of RM4.10. Though the timber business is not doing exceptionally well at this juncture, we believe Ta Ann is on the verge of becoming a mid-sized plantation company given the sizeable landbank that it owns. Banking on its continuous new planting efforts in recent years, we think Ta Ann is going to reap the gains in the coming years judging by its strong FFB production growth. In addition, we expect CPO prices to rebound to the average of RM2,550/mt after being depressed at current levels for nearly two years.
From timber to oil palm. Ta Ann was founded in 1985 by a group of Sarawak business people. The company started timber extraction from a timber concession area in Kapit and eventually went into downstream processing after the imposition of a 40% (now 50%) export quota by the state government in 1988. Today, timber is not the only core business for the company, having diversified into re-forestation and oil palm plantations as well. The company holds six timber concessions with a total area of 435,256ha. It also has 97,855ha for oil palm plantations and 313,078ha of forest plantations in Sarawak.
Forecasting double-digit earnings growth even with current unattractive palm oil prices and hiccups in timber segment. Though FY13 group earnings are expected to be weaker, we are more positive on the FY14 outlook, fuelled by improved earnings from its palm oil operations despite continuous losses in the plywood segment. As the company is in the process of restructuring its Australian veneer operation, we expect losses from this particular area to narrower in the future, starting 2H FY14.
Risk factors include rising log prices which is negative for plywood margins, fuel cost and labour cost. Abnormally lengthy rainy season and strengthening of ringgit currency against USD will also be disadvantageous for Ta Ann’s timber’s business. Other key threats to demand and Ta Ann’s plywood product prices include Japanese economic growth and trade policies in other wood-supplying countries.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 22 Oct 2013

Engtex eyes 20% of water pipe replacement market

Ductile water pipe manufacturer Engtex Group Bhd is eyeing 20% of the replacement and new markets in the country's estimated RM5bn waterpipe in the industry. Engtex Group managing director Datuk Ng Hook said it is no secret the water distribution infrastructure has reached a "red flag" level. "Non-revenue water, due mainly to leakage, averaged 37% in 2011, with some states recording even more than 50%, such as Pahang, Sabah, Perlis and Kelantan. " In fact, almost half of the water service complaints were largely due to burst pipes and leakage," he told. (The Edge)

游枝︰最坏是双重不景气

讲钱︰价格的疑问（14）
物价，通常在经济不景气时就会下跌，原因是行情一坏，物品不容易卖出去，怕物品屯积多了，只好跌价以求收回起码的成本。
　不过，有一种异常状态，是市况不景气，物价不落反而上涨，行情坏物价又上涨，是最坏的不景气。
　40年前，1970年初的石油危机过后，全球石油价格大升，同时物价也起，双重的痛苦，困扰了世界好多年。
　同样的，5年前的2008年，金融风暴之前，世界原油起价，粮食及生活必需品也涨价，是另一次双重坏行情的实例。
　石油，仍然是最关重要的必需能源，同时在工业、生活、经济、军事至外交各个层面上具备战略作用。
　油价起得大幅度，直接加重物品生产的成本，甚至挫折工业生产的正常运作。
　1970年初及2008年，当时都出现相同恶果，石油能源价高，很多成本本来就在微利中挣扎的企业大量倒闭，导致物品出产量减，市面上物品不足，物价迫得上升。
　通常的不景气，是消费需要减少造成，但是，70年代及5年前的坏行情，是物品供给能力低下，于是形成市况不好而物价不降反升的双重打击。
　企业减产或倒闭，大量在职者失去职业又失去正常入息，人们在钱不够用的坏市中又得买贵东西，情况是坏上加坏。
　如此双重不景气一旦发生，货币的兑换率必然陷入混乱，通货价值就下跌，银行利息不能不升，银行加息，贷款者的付息及偿还负担加重，拖累社会的金钱流通量大为减少，经济活动更沉滞。
　过去两度的双重不景气，证实有一种必然连带出现的恶状，就是在能源价高、物品价高的双重坏市打击下，钱的价值反而下跌到很不见用。

债台高利率涨 泡沫恐破裂

（吉隆坡16日讯）福布斯一名财经分析员指出，政府兴建118层高的独立遗产大楼，相信是商业循环见顶，经济将步入衰退的一个警讯。

独立遗产大楼将会是东南亚最高的大楼。 根据摩天楼指数（Skyscraper Index），一项观察商业循环周期及摩天楼建筑互动关系的指标，当经济周期来到最高点，兴建摩天楼的投资也将达到顶峰，接着下来，可能就是经济衰退的到来。

福布斯线上杂志分析员杰斯哥仑波指出，在中国经济放慢，全球及本地利率开始走高之际，大马经济的泡沫将会爆破。

哥仑波曾经因为准确预测全球金融危机，而获得《伦敦时报》的推崇。他指出，大马政府及家庭债务高企是造成信贷泡沫的源头。

他在福布斯杂志中撰文指出，当中国经济泡沫爆破，而全球及大马的利率开始走高，大马泡沫也将随之爆破。他也指出，造成大马的信贷及资产泡沫形成的主要原因，是全球及大马的低利率环境。

哥仑波也指出，美国联邦储备局启动降减量化宽松规模，短期内将对大马金融市场带来压力。出口疲软导致大马经常账项盈馀下滑，也是另一让人担忧的走势。

这名驻纽约的分析员认为，即将出现的经济危机，可能比1997年的亚洲金融危机更严重，因为全球经济疲软的趋势，将导致更多国家受到牵连。

「如我之前也所说的，新兴市场的惊慌抛售，预计将造成这些市场的泡沫爆破，引发另一轮类似1997年亚洲金融风暴的危机，而这一次的情况可能更糟，因为会牵连更多的国家，包括拉丁美洲，中国及非洲。此外，全球经济正处于比1990年代末更疲软的阶段。」

财务赤字大幅走高

哥仑波表示，新兴市场泡沫始于09年，在全球金融危机之际，中国展开积极的，由信贷推动的基建成长策略，以支撑经济成长。

他指出，美国丶欧洲及日本的低利率，加上联邦储备局数以兆美元计算的量化宽松计划，促使过去4年，总数约4兆美元（12.7兆令吉）的热钱，流入新兴市场。

资金大量流入大马市场，促使令吉在短短两年内升值25%，外资在债券市场的持有比重也达到历来新高。

大马在过去几年取得平均6%的成长，政府及家庭贷款大幅增加是其中一个推动因素。政府债务占国内生产总值比重，自2010年已经超过50%水平，这主要是因为政府在全球金融危机时期，采取刺激措施，支撑经济成长，导致财务赤字大幅走高。

《彭博社》的资料显示，13个亚洲新兴国家当中，大马的公债对国内生产总值排名第2高，斯里兰卡在第一位。而大马的高债务负担，也导致国际评估机构--惠誉在今年7月下调大马的信贷评级展望。

大马家庭债务也同样出现持续增长的趋势，家庭债务占国内生产总值的比重更达到83%，比2009年的70%，及1997年亚洲金融风暴时期的39%比重，明显增加。更是东南亚国家当中，比重最高的一个。他指出，大马家庭债务自2008年以来，以每年12%的幅度成长。

他认为，从银行贷款利率维持在历来最低水平来看，家庭债务大幅走高的趋势就不会让人感到奇怪。超低的利率水平，导致私人贷款自2008年来，增长超过80%，用以衡量经济体系内货币及信贷数额的M3广义货币供应，也出现让人担心的趋势。

哥仑波也引述大马消费人联合会首席执行员拿督保罗西瓦拉泽的话指出，47%的大马年轻人面对严重的债务问题（每个月偿付的供款超过收入30%），这最终将成为他们的梦魇。

保罗也指出，购买汽车及信用卡债务是导致大马人破产的主要原因，而这主要是因为社会风气，大家希望彰显本身的社会地位，但是最终却需要付出代价。

另外，企业债券及银行贷款也同步走高，从2007年占国内生产总值的70%，上涨至2013年的95.8%。

产业价格走高，也是导致房屋贷款扩大，目前房屋贷款占家庭债务接近一半比重。