Target RM4.67 (Short Term: Trading Buy)
Ta
Ann's 1H13 core earnings came in below expectations at only 20% of our
and 16% of consensus full-year forecasts. The key culprit was the paring
down of old plywood inventories at below-cost prices, offsetting the
stronger log earnings.
We
cut our FY13 EPS by 15% to account for the losses from sales of old
plywood inventories, but keep our FY14-15 numbers unchanged as we
believe this is a one-off event. We maintain our SOP-based target price
and Trading Buy call. However, it is not an Outperform as we expect the
stock to rerate primarily due to rising plywood prices in 2H13.
2Q results highlights
Excluding the RM19m net gain arising from the renegotiation of the wood supply agreement with the Australian government, Ta Ann's 2Q net profit dropped 61% yoy, largely because of lower CPO selling prices which fell 30% yoy. Logging pretax profit rose 17% yoy to RM13.2m on higher selling prices (+18% yoy) but overall timber earnings were dragged down by plywood losses, which deepened to RM12.7m (+17% yoy). Ta Ann's plywood division is unprofitable as its raw material cost is inflated by its Tasmanian operations, which have higher operating costs. Plywood losses in 2Q was larger than expected as it pared down 18,964m³ of its plywood inventories - 43% more than its production volume of 44,006m³. We estimate that this resulted in an additional loss of RM5m. Excluding this, the results would be broadly in line with our forecast.
Stronger 2H earnings
We expect Ta Ann to perform better in 2H, supported by our view of higher plywood prices, the absence of losses from sales of plywood inventories, and higher FFB production. 2H palm production typically makes up 60% of its full-year production.
Top pick for timber sector
Despite the earnings setback, we continue to rate Ta Ann, a Trading Buy as we believe its current share price has not fully reflect the potential of higher plywood prices. Rerating catalysts could come from higher timber earnings in 2H13.
2Q results highlights
Excluding the RM19m net gain arising from the renegotiation of the wood supply agreement with the Australian government, Ta Ann's 2Q net profit dropped 61% yoy, largely because of lower CPO selling prices which fell 30% yoy. Logging pretax profit rose 17% yoy to RM13.2m on higher selling prices (+18% yoy) but overall timber earnings were dragged down by plywood losses, which deepened to RM12.7m (+17% yoy). Ta Ann's plywood division is unprofitable as its raw material cost is inflated by its Tasmanian operations, which have higher operating costs. Plywood losses in 2Q was larger than expected as it pared down 18,964m³ of its plywood inventories - 43% more than its production volume of 44,006m³. We estimate that this resulted in an additional loss of RM5m. Excluding this, the results would be broadly in line with our forecast.
Stronger 2H earnings
We expect Ta Ann to perform better in 2H, supported by our view of higher plywood prices, the absence of losses from sales of plywood inventories, and higher FFB production. 2H palm production typically makes up 60% of its full-year production.
Top pick for timber sector
Despite the earnings setback, we continue to rate Ta Ann, a Trading Buy as we believe its current share price has not fully reflect the potential of higher plywood prices. Rerating catalysts could come from higher timber earnings in 2H13.
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